Trump Watch is a new weekly “report card” on all things Trump hosted by Scott Ritter for paid subscribers. Scott interviews one guest on one topic in each episode. In Episode Eight, Ryan Dawson shares his unrivaled information about the so-called Epstein files, and delves into the relationship between Israel and the United States.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Market Recap

'Day Of Reckoning' Near: Why Social Security Won't Exist In 10 Years

MARKETS: Investor's Picks Up 50% In 3 Months, Called TSLA Crash, Here Are His Next Buys

CRYPTO: Bitcoin Q3 Warning: Why August, September Are 'Worst Months'

Market Melt-Up: S&P 500 To Hit 7,500, Here's When

CRYPTO IDEA: Bitcoin Is The Everything Chain (Sponsored Post)

ECONOMY: Credit Card Debt Hits $1.2 Trillion; When Will Debt Bomb Explode?

ECONOMY: Labor Market ‘Cracks’ Are ‘Spreading’; Should You Be Worried?

HOUSING: ‘Continued Chaos’ In Housing: 'Bloodbath Of Losses' Happening Now

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MARKET RECAP

U.S. markets closed mixed on Monday, July 14, 2025, with the Nasdaq reaching a new record high despite ongoing tariff concerns. The S&P 500 gained 0.14% to 6,268.56, while the Dow rose 0.20% to 44,459.65. The Nasdaq climbed 0.27% to 20,640.33. Bitcoin surged past $123,000 for the first time during "Crypto Week" before retreating below $120,000.

Trade tensions dominated headlines this past week as President Trump escalated tariff threats, announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian goods effective August 1. Markets largely dismissed President Trump's announced 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico goods starting August 1. Investors are focused on upcoming inflation data and second-quarter earnings beginning this week with major banks. The move followed earlier announcements of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and additional 10% levies on BRICS-aligned countries. Despite these developments, markets showed resilience with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin hitting fresh records.

Experts featured on The David Lin Report this past year successfully called the S&P 500 reaching new record highs, just as it did this past Thursday. Their calls are featured in the Daily News video linked above. The S&P has now gained ~6% year-to-date after recovering from April's near-bear market when "Liberation Day" triggered an 18.9% correction. The year's price action responded primarily to tariffs and geopolitical events rather than Federal Reserve policy. Israel's "Operation Rising Lion" attack on Iran June 13 briefly pressured markets, while the June 23-24 U.S.-Iran military exchange caused oil spikes. Markets quickly recovered after each event.

Bitcoin also surged to an all-time high to just above $123,000 early this morning (Monday, July 14). Many experts on The David Lin Report also called this rally over the past year. Some clips of these calls are compiled in the video linked above. Institutional money has poured into Bitcoin ETFs. Last Thursday's $1.18 billion ETF inflows alone marked the second-highest daily total on record. Bitcoin demonstrated an intriguing evolution in its market behavior, declining only 11% during April's Liberation Day correction compared to equities' near-20% plunge—a divergence that prompted speculation about cryptocurrency's maturation as a portfolio diversifier. Bitcoin’s performance during June's geopolitical tensions proved particularly revealing: while traditional risk assets sold off during Israel's military operations, Bitcoin's recovery from $101,000 to $110,000 during the U.S.-Iran exchange suggested investors increasingly view it as a geopolitical hedge rather than merely a speculative vehicle.

Market Movements

The following assets experienced dramatic swings in price last week. Data are up-to-date as of July 14 at approximately 4pm EST.

COIN - up 10.03%

AMD - up 6.01%

MSTR - up 14.03%

PLTR - up 7.21%

CRWV - down 17.11%

CRWD - down 7.51%

DXY - up 1.16%

Bitcoin - up 9.93%

Gold - up .28%

10-year Treasury Yield - up 1.64%

S&P 500 [SPX] - up .15%

Russell 2000 [RUT] - up .54%

'Day Of Reckoning' Near: Why Social Security Won't Exist In 10 Years

Peter Grandich, Founder of Peter Grandich and Company with over 40 years of Wall Street experience, remained bullish on copper despite its 13% single-day surge following Trump's 50% tariff announcement. However, he expressed concern about the protectionist approach. Copper reached all-time highs above $5 per pound Wednesday, marking its biggest single-day move in years.

"I'm not thrilled that it took a tariff to do it because I'm not a fan of tariffs in general," Grandich said. He predicted copper would remain above $5 even if Trump reduced tariffs to 20-25%, citing structural supply shortages. The metal doubled from $2.50 in 2020 when Grandich first recommended it.

The veteran investor warned about broader economic risks. "No, I don't think there's a way out of this. I think there's a day of reckoning," Grandich said about the U.S. debt crisis. He predicted Trump would pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively to refinance $10 trillion in Treasury debt.

Grandich maintained his commodity supercycle thesis, avoiding U.S. equities except mining shares. "I feel much more comfortable owning mining shares at this point than I do a high-flying technology stock," he explained. He upgraded silver after previously calling it "like kissing your sister."

On retirement planning, Grandich criticized the 401(k) system for shifting responsibility to financially illiterate workers. "Two-thirds of Americans are working paycheck to paycheck," he said.

MARKETS: Investor's Picks Up 50% In 3 Months, Called TSLA Crash, Here Are His Next Buys

Fr. Emmanuel Lemelson, CIO of Lemelson Capital Management, criticized Elon Musk's proposed America Party and warned of market fraud during his third appearance on David Lin's show. The Orthodox priest and investor, whose previous picks outperformed the market, called Musk "a whack job" and questioned his political ambitions.

"This guy is a cult leader," Lemelson said about Musk. He linked the Tesla CEO to "dark enlightenment" ideology, warning of authoritarian tendencies disguised as efficiency. Musk announced the party formation after a July 4th poll where 65% of 1.2 million respondents supported a third party.

Lemelson's previous recommendations succeeded. Big Five Sporting Goods gained over 50% before its acquisition, Nike returned 30%, and Kohl's rose 27% since April. He explained his investment philosophy: "Price is what you pay and value is what you get."

The investor recommended two new stocks experiencing sharp declines. Centene (CNC) dropped 40% after Trump's Medicaid cuts announcement. "You can calculate what was the share price before, what was it a year ago and what's the earnings going to be," Lemelson said. He also suggested Flower Foods (FLO), maker of Dave's Killer Bread.

Lemelson predicted worsening market conditions. "I think we're going to a golden age of fraud right now," he said.

CRYPTO: Bitcoin Q3 Warning: Why August, September Are 'Worst Months'

Ben Cowen, Founder of Into the Cryptoverse, predicted Bitcoin would experience a third-quarter pullback before continuing its upward trajectory, dismissing hopes for a traditional altcoin season. Speaking at the Bitcoin Las Vegas Conference, Cowan emphasized Bitcoin dominance as the key metric for crypto portfolio construction.

"Over the long haul, alts are oscillators at best against Bitcoin and 99.999% of them are just bleeding against Bitcoin over the macro scale," Cowan said. He explained that altcoins currently represent 35% of Bitcoin's market cap, above the historical 25% level where alt seasons typically begin.

Cowan predicted the S&P would continue rising despite Bitcoin's temporary weakness. "Bitcoin can sniff out where the money supply is going to go before it goes there," he explained, challenging conventional views about M2 money supply correlations. He noted Bitcoin historically tops six months before the money supply peaks.

The analyst said Ethereum had finally "gone home" to its $1,500-$1,600 regression band after Bitcoin's January-April decline. He maintained a 99% Bitcoin allocation throughout the cycle, citing diminishing but still significant downside risks. "In 2022, it dropped 77%. In 2018, it dropped 84%," Cowan said.

Regarding Federal Reserve policy, Cowan predicted limited rate cuts until Powell's departure. He cited rising inflation expectations at levels unseen since 1981 as constraining monetary easing despite negative Q1 GDP growth.

Market Melt-Up: S&P 500 To Hit 7,500, Here's When

Mike Lee, Founder of Michael Lee Strategy, predicted the S&P 500 would reach 7,500 within a year, citing fiscal stimulus, anticipated rate cuts, and artificial intelligence infrastructure growth as key drivers. Lee, who correctly called the current bull market, appeared confident despite the index trading at historically high valuations.

"I think a year from now you're talking about S&P 7500," Lee said. He predicted Federal Reserve rate cuts of 150 to 250 basis points over the next twelve months.

Lee highlighted his successful CoreWeave recommendation, which gained 289% since his May appearance. He explained the company's advantage in the AI infrastructure race: "For every GPU Nvidia sells, there's demand for 15." He predicted CoreWeave would reach $160 billion market capitalization conservatively.

The strategist criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell as "a hyper-partisan anti-Trump actor" and predicted minimal rate cuts under current leadership. Lee dismissed concerns about Trump's tariff announcements, including the recent 25% tariffs on Korea and Japan. "Every time there's been a market selloff on a tariff headline has been a buying opportunity," he said.

Lee's portfolio allocation revealed heavy tech exposure: 32.5% in communications (XLC), 30% in technology (XLK), and 10% in gold. He remained bearish on oil, healthcare, and consumer staples. Lee explained his bullish stance: "You have earnings estimates that are way too low."

CRYPTO IDEA: Bitcoin Is The Everything Chain (Sponsored Post)

Core is the Bitcoin Everything Chain—where Bitcoin meets staking, building, and earning. It allows holders to transform idle BTC into a productive, yield-generating asset, unlocking the asset’s full financial potential beyond its store-of-value origins.

Through Core’s Self-Custodial Bitcoin Staking, users can timelock Bitcoin natively using Bitcoin’s CLTV functionality to help secure the Core network—all while retaining full custody and without introducing new risks. This trustless, transparent mechanism powers Core’s tdrhigh-performance, EVM-compatible blockchain and supports a growing ecosystem of Bitcoin-secured DeFi applications.

Bitcoin Timelock & Dual Staking

Core went live in January 2023 and has since enabled the staking of over 5,000 BTC through its Bitcoin Staking and Dual Staking systems. Dual Staking supercharges rewards by combining BTC staking with staking of the CORE token, offering yields up to 10x higher and deeply aligning incentives with the network.

lstBTC

To meet institutional demand for yield-bearing Bitcoin without sacrificing security or compliance, Core, alongside Maple Finance is launching lstBTC, a liquid staked Bitcoin asset. Institutional-grade custodians including BitGo and Copper will enable custody for lstBTC. Maple Finance, an on-chain asset management platform with nearly US$3 billion in AUM, has already staked over 1,600 BTC into a Core-powered yield product. Valour Inc., and Valour Digital Securities Limited (together, “Valour”), a leading issuer of exchange-traded products ("ETPs") that provide simplified access to digital assets, world’s first ETP that allows investors to earn yield on bitcoin.

The Next Move for Corporate Bitcoin

Core is opening the door for Bitcoin Treasury Companies to turn idle Bitcoin into productive Bitcoin. Treasuries are assembling massive stockpiles with billions of dollars of BTC. When they want to deploy those into the lowest risk, highest-upside yield opportunities, Core is there.

Here’s how it works: timelock Bitcoin on the Bitcoin blockchain, vote for Core validators, earn passive yield. No bridging. No wrapping. No lending. Treasury companies can generate 4-6% APY while maintaining complete custody and every security property that made Bitcoin attractive in the first place.

Pairing BTC staking and CORE staking will maximize treasury yields, strengthen BTCfi security, and make these treasury companies not only vehicles for TradFi access to Bitcoin, but also secure backers of the emerging Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem on Core.

For more information, watch our interview with Rich Rines, Initial Contributor to Core:

ECONOMY: Credit Card Debt Hits $1.2 Trillion; When Will Debt Bomb Explode?

Consumer Debt Hits Record $1.2 Trillion as Delinquencies Rise Above Recession Levels

Bankrate Senior Analyst Ted Rossman discussed consumer debt reaching historic highs in 2025, with credit card balances hitting $1.2 trillion as American households struggle with elevated costs across all categories. More than 10% of credit cards are now 90-plus days delinquent.

He warned of particular stress in auto lending during a July 2025 interview. "We have seen especially in the subprime auto loan space delinquencies exceed what we've seen in the great recession," Rossman said.

Auto loans face particular strain with average new car prices around $50,000 and monthly payments reaching $700-800. Higher vehicle costs, supply chain disruptions, and potential tariff impacts compound affordability challenges.

Student loans present another crisis area. Payment moratoriums that lasted from 2020 to late 2024 created widespread adjustment problems. "A lot of people got used to not paying those for a while, and now that's really coming home to roost," Rossman explained.

FICO announced new scoring algorithms this fall that will incorporate buy-now-pay-later data, addressing what regulators call "phantom debt" hidden from traditional reporting. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau had pursued stricter regulation under Biden, but the Trump administration rolled back most requirements.

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ECONOMY: Labor Market ‘Cracks’ Are ‘Spreading’; Should You Be Worried?

Eric Basmajian, economist and founder of EPB Research, warned of underlying labor market deterioration during a July 2025 interview following Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on Japanese and Korean goods. The Dow fell 500 points as markets grappled with renewed trade tensions.

"The hiring rate is extraordinarily low. If you don't have a job, it's very difficult to get hired right now," Basmajian said. Despite stable unemployment at 4.1%, he identified troubling trends beneath headline numbers.

Part-time employment for economic reasons increased to 3% of the workforce, while full-time employment as a share of the labor force declined to 2016-2017 levels. Companies are reducing hours and avoiding layoffs due to pandemic-era profit margin cushions.

Basmajian explained tariffs as "attacks" that create economic drag. He noted that despite tariff implementation, CPI declined 0.1% last month, contradicting inflation fears.

The housing sector shows particular weakness. Construction job openings dropped 35% year-over-year, while new home sales plummeted. Basmajian predicted a sequential deterioration: falling volumes, reduced construction activity, margin compression, and eventual layoffs.

"Under the surface, we see all these late-cycle dynamics," Basmajian said of the labor market. He expects the economy to continue slowing as corporate profit margins compress from historically elevated levels.

HOUSING: ‘Continued Chaos’ In Housing: 'Bloodbath Of Losses' Happening Now

Ron Butler, Principal Mortgage Broker at Butler Mortgage and Host of The Angry Mortgage podcast, predicted continued turbulence in North American housing markets during a July 2025 interview. US mortgage rates dropped to 6.79%, triggering a 7% surge in refinance applications. However, purchase applications barely moved.

"It's a clear case of an affordability problem," Butler said. Home prices grew 60% since 2019, while wages failed to keep pace. Butler explained that substantial buyer activity requires rates "that start with a five."

The interview referenced Trump's "big beautiful bill," which Butler said "rattles bond traders" and could push rates back above 7%. Butler predicted the new administration will focus heavily on mortgage rates once other priorities are addressed.

In Canada, newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government unveiled ambitious housing plans. The government promised to build 500,000 homes annually through a new federal agency. Butler dismissed the initiative, comparing it to New Zealand's failed program that delivered only 2,389 homes instead of a promised 100,000.

"Nothing's going to change," Butler said of the Liberal housing agenda.

Butler recommended buyers wait, predicting "substantial reductions in the price of condominiums by Q1 next year." He noted Toronto's $260,000 development fees on single-family homes versus $28,000 in Alberta.

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What To Watch

Tuesday, July 15 -

• Consumer price index

• CPI year over year

• Core CPI

• Core CPI year over year

• Empire State manufacturing survey

Wednesday, July 16 -

• Producer price index

• Core PPI

• PPI year over year

• Core PPI year over year

• Industrial production

• Capacity utilization

• Fed Beige Book

Thursday, July 17 -

• Initial jobless claims

• U.S. retail sales

• Import price index

• Business inventories

• Home builder confidence index

Friday, July 18 -

• Housing starts