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Greetings, All!
Let’s catch up on the latest top headlines, opinions, and recommendations.
As America’s “Liberation Day” nears, the Trump administration added yet another country to a growing list of targeted states. The US will impose a 25% tariff on all importers of oil from Venezuela. President Trump clarified that the new tariff would be added to any other tariffs on trade with the United States.
During the past 12 months, nearly 200 cargo ships carrying Venezuela’s oil travelled to Europe, and 90 oil tankers shipped oil to China. The Trump administration might view the policy as a “two birds one stone” approach that allows it to wreck what’s left of Venezuela’s economy (as of February 2024, approximately 82% of Venezuelans live in poverty), potentially increase the cost of a fraction of China’s oil imports and weaken the EU, thus forcing it to focus on the US as its main source of energy (to its own detriment, without a doubt).
Imposing an economic blockade on Venezuela’s main source of revenue will cause disproportionate harm to the country’s civilian population. While economic sanctions are designed to destabilize the country from within, Nicolas Maduro has proven to be rather immune to covert regime change operations.
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“The greatest threat to dollar hegemony is that Washington might destroy the pillars underlying the currency’s appeal: rule of law, contract enforcement, government transparency, the unquestioned safety of US treasuries.” (Financial Times)
In a recently published article, Financial Times points out several “truths” that were previously regarded as anti-American: de-dollarization is the result of failed Washington’s policies, not the inherent “evil” of China, Russia, or other actors seeking to protect their economic sovereignty. While the entire world has started to point out the hypocrisy of waging economic wars and weaponizing the most valuable asset of the United States, its dollar as the global reserve currency, US policymakers appear to be in denial as the day when an aggressive tariff regime goes into effect is celebratory advertised as “America’s Liberation Day”.
Since access to the dollar system was essential for governments and businesses around the globe, Washington could punish adversaries without firing a bullet by blocking their ability to transact in dollars.
The trend to amplify currency multipolarity is one of many features that accompany the transition from unipolarity to a more balanced global structure. The US's ability to print an endless supply of dollars and export them abroad solidified US monetary hegemony. The decline of trust in the US dollar is a symptom of a much deeper shift that is transforming the world as well as its main actors.
The US-Ukraine minerals deal, expected to be signed any day, is nothing short of looting Ukraine’s resources for generations to come: the deal, in its current format, is “indefinite” and hands over all resources—oil, gas, minerals—to the United States as the main beneficiary. Even Ukraine’s members of Parliament are protesting on social media platforms: "It [the deal] is not in our favor!”
While Volodymir Zelensky appears to deny that close to $120 billion provided in military assistance to Ukraine is, in fact, debt (one has to wonder - did Zelensky believe it was charity or humanitarian aid, or is this a maneuver to manipulate Donald Trump?) that Ukraine must repay, both sides appear to indicate that the agreement is close to being signed.
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This Week’s Top Headlines
On Friday, Elon Musk’s xAI acquired X (formerly Twitter) at a valuation of $33 billion. Combined valuation of XAI Holdings now exceeds $100 billion, not including the debt.
With the price of vehicles expected to rise due to new 25% tariffs effective April 3, auto dealers report complete chaos in their showrooms as buyers attempt to purchase a vehicle before the price increases. Automakers are accelerating shipments and builds.
“US dealerships are sitting on about 60 to 90 days of inventory on average, providing them with a cushion against the immediate effects of the tariffs.
What happens after that supply runs out remains unclear. Analysts say that automakers will most likely absorb some of the higher costs, dealers may see a hit to profitability and consumers will pay the rest. But exactly how that’s all balanced out is anyone’s guess at this point.” (Bloomberg)
The Trump administration is moving ahead with the Golden Dome missile defense project. This is not the first time the US has attempted to create the infrastructure— after issuing an executive order to make it official, President Donald Trump drew parallels with the well-known Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) of 1983 under President Ronald Reagan. An advanced system, whether it is practically justified or not, will cost billions of dollars to develop and implement, and it is a major win for American defense contractors.
President Trump threatened Iran, stating that “bad things will happen” if it refused to negotiate with the United States. The escalation follows Iran’s response, conveyed to the US via Oman, which indicated that the country will not agree to coercion but is open to diplomatic, respectful negotiations.
Following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA agreement, which, according to independent reports, Iran was in full compliance with, the Trump administration may attempt to revive the failed deal. Whether such attempts will be made in good faith remains to be seen.
Despite not being acknowledged as such by the responsible parties, the Signalgate scandal that unraveled this week is a complete disaster on an international scale. Where does one even begin? Bombing an entire residential building to allegedly target a single individual, then cheering on an “excellent” outcome as the building collapses with civilians inside? Dislcosure of what should be classified information? A detailed list of planned bombings on Yemen? The list goes on…
Here is a video of the “bomb Yemen” group chat shared by The Atlantic:
Ted Snider's article "The Signal Scandal, Carelessness, Revelations, and Hypocrisy" provides an excellent perspective on the failure to protect national security and adhere to the rules of war.
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What I’m Reading & Listening to This Week
This week I enjoyed a podcast America’s Constitutional Crisis by featuring Prof. Katherine Franke from Columbia University. Whether you are independent, right, left or somewhere in the middle, it may be time to admit that selective application of law, as well as blutantly silencing dissent, is a red flag and a sign of much more pervaisive, structural issues that will only exxacerbate if left unchecked.
I focused on reading a well-resesarched, insightful book by Samuel Moyn, Humane. I will discuss it in greater detail in a new, Substack-exclusive, video series featuring interviews with authors that I am currently working on (please stay tuned and subscribe to get updates when it is released!)
Moyn examines the evolution of modern warfare and the bi-partisan push for so-called “humanitarianism” in the context of US foreign policy.
The author argues that this shift, which began in the mid-20th century, coincided with the rise of "humane" warfare tactics, such as precision bombing and drone strikes, which are portrayed by policymakers as less destructive and more ethical than traditional warfare methods. As we know well, these efforts have not necessarily led to less violence or fewer civilian casualties. Instead, they have provided a moral cover for ongoing US military interventions and endless wars abroad.
Thank you to all of my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions are the inspiration behind it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute towards the resources needed to produce more content.
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