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A mother Killdeer tends to her eggs

I spend hours every day pouring through news reports and analysis of events transpiring around the world. Often, the information that comes across my desk represents the worst that humans can do to one another—war, famine, death, and destruction dominate the headlines. At times the negativity and sorrow these stories generate can become overwhelming. This is why I look forward to my morning walks with my dogs—it provides a much-needed opportunity to recharge my life batteries with the “good stuff”.

Every morning before the work day begins, my wife, Marina, and I load our four dogs—two Pomeranians (Maverick and Iceman), a Chihuahua (Machismo) and a mixed breed Shephard named Teegan—into our car and head to a local park where we can enjoy a stroll outdoors, surrounded by nature, while the dogs can roam and explore free of the constraints of a leash.

The Ritter dogs at the park: (left to right) Machismo, Iceman, Maverick and Teegan

The park is blessed with an extravaganza of flora and fauna native to upstate New York—we have crossed paths with deer, fox, skunks, rabbits, snakes, squirrels and chipmunks. It is also a favorite place for local Ornithologists to sharpen their birdwatching skills, as the park is home to numerous birds native to the region: American Bald Eagles, Red-Tailed Hawks, Ospreys and Great Horned Owls fly overhead, looking for prey, while Mallard, Wood Ducks, Green-Winged Teals, and Canadian Geese make their home along the banks and in the waters of the Normans Kill Creek. And all around us one can see Robins, Starlings, Sparrows, Cardinals, Red-Wing Blackbirds, Woodcocks, Crows and numerous other species of birds—including the Killdeer.

The Killdeer is a large Plover which makes its nest in short vegetation where the female can lay her clutch, usually comprised of four to six beige eggs with dark markings. Albany is known for its cold weather, meaning that the Killdeer tend to delay laying their eggs until well into May, once the temperatures start to warm up.

I always know when it is nesting time for the Killdeer because of the loud and active interaction the birds have with my dogs, who invariably come close to the eggs of a nesting pair, prompting a display of the various techniques the Killdeer use to distract potential predators and lure them away from the nest and its eggs.

Because of the cold temperatures this year, I didn’t experience the Killdeer’s repertoire of distractions and noise until last week when, for the first time this year, my four dogs encountered the shrill cry of a male Killdeer and he simulated a broken-wing, dragging one appendage on the ground while crying out in simulated pain.

It worked like a champ—all four dogs took off after the “injured bird”, only to discover that he was miraculously healed at the last moment, taking to the air to lead my four miscreants even further from the territory where his mate was tending to her eggs. I scanned the field to my left, looking for the mother bird, only to be startled myself as I approached her nest, which was situated just off the edge of the gravel path which constituted the park’s perimeter. The mother bird immediately spread her wings, exposing the orange feathers underneath, catching my attention before shrieking and running off. I looked down at me feet and saw what she was desperately trying to protect—her four perfectly formed eggs, sitting exposed in the short grass.

The four Killdeer eggs

I immediately walked away, only to notice that the father bird, having led my dogs away from the nest, had returned, summoned by the shrill cry of his mate, and began rushing at me to catch my attention. I carefully moved away from the eggs, and headed up the path, calling for my dogs to join me. I looked back to see the mother had returned to her nest, where she nestled herself over the eggs, continuing the incubation of her charges.

Later, as I made my way down the hill, I did my best to distract my dogs away from the nest, situated as it was so close to the trail. But I needed not to have fretted—the mother and father Killdeer worked their distraction magic, ensuring that all four dogs were lured away from the nest.

The next day Marina and I once again transported the dogs to the park, and once again we were confronted by the Killdeer nesting pair, who entertained us with their antics as we walked past their exposed and vulnerable nesting site. We weren’t the only dog owners to frequent the park—at any moment, there could be a half dozen owners and their dogs taking the scenic walk around the premises. This meant the Killdeer pair were working overtime to protect their eggs.

The Killdeer mother on her eggs, next to the gravel path

I made a point of mentioning the nest to the other dog owners I came across, to alert them to the precarious location of the nest. To my surprise and joy I found that most of them were aware of the nest and took similar precautions to avoid any tragic encounters between their pets and the eggs.

This past Saturday the weather took a turn for the worse, with the temperature falling into the low 40’s and the sky opening, unleashing a torrential rain. Normally my wife and I would stay home, not wanting either we or the dogs to become soaking wet and miserable. But I was drawn to the park out of concern for the Killdeer pair and their eggs. The morning proved to be as miserable as we had thought it would be—even the dogs were not enthusiastic about getting out of the dry car and venturing out into the pouring rain. But I was on a mission, and I threw the hood of my rain jacket over my head and made my way up the gravel path, only to be rewarded by the shrill cry of the father as he tried to get my attention, and the plaintive look of the mother, soaking wet, as she sat on her clutch shielding them from the elements.

The mother Killdeer, in the rain, protecting her eggs

Marina and I had a busy day ahead of us, trying to take care of all the little things associated with owning a home that are shunted to the side during the hustle and bustle of the work week. But as busy as we were, I just couldn’t get the mother killdeer out of my mind. The nest was so exposed, and I worried about her precious eggs, knowing that she and her mate would need to watch over them for nearly three more weeks before they would hatch. I watched the rain form into rivulets of rushing water around my neighborhood and had visions of the Killdeer nest being swept away by the water.

Come Sunday morning I awoke with more energy than usual, anxious to get to the park and check on “my” Killdeer and “our” eggs. I let the dogs out of the car and awaited the frantic cries of the father Killdeer as he engaged them to distract them away from the nest.

All I heard was silence.

My heart was in my throat as I approached the nesting area, scanning the ground for some sign of life.

And there she was, the mother bird, still nestled on her eggs.

She looked at me, and let out a little peep, letting me know I was getting too close.

It was the most beautiful sound in the world.

The mother Killdeer chirps out a warning

Marina and I discussed the Killdeer nest and brainstormed about what we could do to protect it. One idea was to place plow marker flags around the periphery of the nest to draw attention to the fact that there was a nest located next to the path. I figured that would cause someone to pause and buy time for the Killdeer pair to make their presence known. I decided that I would pace off the site and determine how many markers I would need before heading off to the local hardware store to buy them.

Monday morning came in sunny and warm, a much-needed break from the cold, wet weather that had plagued us for the past two weeks. I drove up to the spot where we normally parked our car, well below the stretch of field where the Killdeer nest was situated and let the dogs out.

Immediately I sensed something was wrong.

The dogs had made their way up the hill, toward the nest, and there was no sound at all from the Killdeer pair. And as my eyes tracked the movement of my dogs, I suddenly realized that I wouldn’t have to worry about buying marker flags for the nest anymore.

Parked in the field, just off the edge of the gravel path, was a large yellow earthmover. Across the path was a natural gas pipeline maintenance facility. Back in April the City of Albany had granted the operator of this facility an easement on property adjacent to the park for the purpose of replacing a section of pipeline. The earthmover was part of the equipment being brought in to accomplish this work.

The earthmover and the destroyed nesting ground

As I traced the route it took to cross the gravel path to where it was now parked, I saw that it had driven directly over the Killdeer nest.

All I could think about was the loyal mother Killdeer, who had remained on her clutch of eggs during the torrential rainstorm.

Who had stared me down the next day, refusing to leave her eggs unattended.

I made my way to where they nest used to be, digging through the mud thrown up by the large rubber wheels of the earthmover, looking for any evidence of the mother bird or her eggs.

There was nothing.

I was struck by a deep, profound sense of sadness and anger. At a time when the headlines proclaimed more death and destruction in Russia, Ukraine, and Gaza, the Killdeer pair and their eggs had become a beacon of light in an otherwise dark and dreary world.

I wanted those eggs to hatch and bring forth life, proving again the miracle of God’s vision when he created this world that we humans were trying so hard to destroy.

I needed those eggs to hatch.

And now they were gone.

I called to my dogs, and headed back to my car, my day no longer brimming with the joy that the Killdeer had injected into my life.

My two Pomeranians, Maverick and Iceman, were in their typical fashion, lagging. I turned my attention to them, calling out their names, when I realized they were chasing something.

It was the father Killdeer.

I walked toward where my two dogs were chasing after the father when I heard a peep to my right. I looked, and it was the mother. She had flown in to join the father in moving my dogs away from a stretch of field, further removed from the path, they had apparently marked out as their territory.

As relieved as I was to see that both were alive, my spirit was crushed at the thought of them going through the motions of protecting a nest that no longer existed.

Filled with a sense of profound sadness, I took it upon myself to read up about Killdeer, so that I might better understand why they had put the nest where they did. The circle of life is something that I am very familiar with, and I fully comprehend that life is fragile, and can be extinguished in a blink of an eye, especially for those animals and birds who live in the wild.

I wanted to know why they remained near the site of their destroyed nest.

Could birds mourn the loss of their eggs? I knew it was foolish to project human emotions on the Killdeer pair, but I was searching for some meaning in what had happened in the field this very morning.

The mother Killdeer protecting her former nesting area

My research led me to a passage which explained that while a Killdeer breeding pair would normally only produce one clutch of eggs per breeding season, if their first clutch were to be eaten or otherwise destroyed early in the breeding season, then the Killdeer would often lay a second clutch of eggs.

This explained the behavior of the Killdeer pair—they weren’t defending a ghost nest but rather staking their claim to a new nesting site. If things went well, in a week or so I should expect to be confronted with a father Killdeer perfectly executing the broken-wing technique to draw my dogs away from the area of the field where the mother Killdeer sat watch on her eggs, incubating them until the moment the miracle of life brought forth the next generation of chirping, fleeting, flying beauties.

Life, given its finite nature, is about the inevitability of heartbreak—ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

But even as death waits on the horizon for us all, it is the miracle of life that gives us both hope for the future and a reason to go on, regardless of the obstacles placed in our way.

We march forward, each day leading to an inescapable destiny, driven not by the despair of our impending doom, but rather the joy of the gift of life we have been given.

Life isn’t fair.

And it often results in tragedy.

But the act of living, of going through the motions of life, is what brings joy into this world.

Keep striving.

Never give up.

No matter what life throws at you..

This is the lesson of the Killdeer.

And it is one I will take forward for the rest of my days.

In 2012, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that “The nuclear weapons remain the most important guarantee of Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and play a key role in maintaining the regional balance and stability.”

In the intervening years, western analysts and observers have accused Russia and its leadership of irresponsibly invoking the threat of nuclear weapons as a means of “saber rattling”—a strategic bluff to hide operational and tactical shortfalls in Russian military capabilities.

In 2020 Russia published, for the first time, an unclassified version of its nuclear doctrine. The document, called “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence,” noted that Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons” when Moscow is acting “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.” The document also stated that Russia reserved the right to use nuclear weapons in case of an “attack by [an] adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions.”

In 2024 Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear doctrine to be updated to consider the complicated geopolitical realities that had emerged from the ongoing Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, where the conflict had morphed into a proxy war between the collective west (NATO and the US) and Russia.

The new doctrine declared that nuclear weapons would be authorized for use in case of an “aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered as their joint attack.”

Russia’s nuclear arsenal would also come into play in the event of “actions by an adversary affecting elements of critically important state or military infrastructure of the Russian Federation, the disablement of which would disrupt response actions by nuclear forces.”

The threats did not have to come in the form of nuclear weapons. Indeed, the new 2024 doctrine specifically stated that Russia could respond with nuclear weapons to any aggression against Russia involving “the employment of conventional weapons, which creates a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity.”

Operation Spiderweb, the largescale assault on critical Russian military infrastructure directly related to Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrence by unmanned drones, has demonstrably crossed Russia’s red lines when it comes to triggering a nuclear retaliation and/or pre-emptive nuclear strike to preclude follow-on attacks. The Ukrainian SBU, under the personal direction of its chief, Vasyl Malyuk, has taken responsibility for the attack.

Operation Spiderweb is a covert direct-action assault on critical Russian military infrastructure and capabilities directly related to Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent capabilities. At least three airfields were attacked using FPV drones operating out of the backs of civilian Kamaz trucks repurposed as drone launch pads. Dyagilevo airfield in Ryazan, Belaya airfield in Irkutsk, and Olenya airfield in Murmansk, home to Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers and A-50 early warning aircraft, were struck, resulting in numerous aircraft being destroyed and/or heavily damaged.

This would be the equivalent of a hostile actor launching drone strikes against US Air Force B-52H bombers stationed at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota and at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, and B-2 bombers stationed at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri.

The timing of Operation Spiderweb is clearly designed to disrupt peace talks scheduled to take place in Istanbul on June 2.

First and foremost, one must understand that it is impossible for Ukraine to seriously prepare for substantive peace talks while planning and executing an operation such as Operation Spiderweb; while the SBU may have executed this attack, it could not have happened without the knowledge and consent of the Ukrainian President or the Minister of Defense.

Moreover, this attack could not have occurred without the consent of Ukraine’s European partners, in particular Great Britain, France and Germany, all of whom were engaged in direct consultations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the days and weeks leading up to the execution of Operation Spiderweb.

The Ukrainians have been encouraged by Europe to be seen as actively supporting the Istanbul peace process, with an eye to the notion that if the talks failed, the blame would be placed on Russia, not Ukraine, thereby making it easier for Europe to continue providing military and financial support to Ukraine.

There appears to be a major role being played by US actors as well—Senator’s Lyndsay Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut, made a joint visit to Ukraine in the past week where they coordinated closely with the Ukrainian government about a new package of economic sanctions linked to Russia’s willingness to accept peace terms predicated on a 30-day ceasefire—one of Ukraine’s core demands.

Operation Spiderweb appears to be a concerted effort to drive Russia away from the Istanbul talks, either by provoking a Russian retaliation which would provide cover for Ukraine to stay home (and an excuse for Graham and Blumenthal to go forward with their sanctions legislation), or provoking Russia to pull out of the talks as it considers its options going forward, an act that would likewise trigger the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions action.

Unknown is the extent to which President Trump, who has been pushing for successful peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, was knowledgeable of the Ukrainian actions, including whether he approved of the action in advance (Trump appeared to be ignorant of the fact that Ukraine had targeted Russian President Putin using drones during a recent trip to Kursk.)

How Russia responds to this latest Ukrainian action is yet unknown; the drone attacks on Russian military bases came on the heels of at least two Ukrainian attacks on Russian rail lines that resulted in significant damage done to locomotives and passenger cars and killed and wounded scores of civilians.

But this much is clear: Ukraine could not have carried out Operation Spiderweb without the political approval and operational assistance of its western allies. The American and British intelligence services have both trained Ukrainian special operation forces in guerilla and unconventional warfare actions, and it is believed that previous Ukrainian attacks against critical Russian infrastructure (the Crimea bridge and Engels Air Base) were done with the assistance of US and British intelligence in the planning and execution phases. Indeed, both the Crimea bridge and Engels airbase attacks were seen as triggers for the issuing of Russia’s 2024 nuclear doctrine modifications.

Russia has in the past responded to provocations by Ukraine and its western allies with a mixture of patience and resolve.

Many have interpreted this stance as a sign of weakness, something which may have factored in the decision by Ukraine and its western facilitators to carry out such a provocative operation on the eve of critical peace discussions.

The extent to which Russia can continue to show the same level of restraint as in the past is tested by the very nature of the attack—a massive use of conventional weapons which struck Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrence force, causing damage.

It is not a stretch of the imagination to see this tactic being used in the future as a means of decapitating Russian strategic nuclear assets (aircraft and missiles) and leadership (the attack against Putin in Kursk underscores this threat.)

If Ukraine can position Kamaz trucks near Russian strategic air bases, it could do so against Russian bases housing Russia’s mobile missile forces.

That Ukraine would carry out such attack likewise shows the extent to which western intelligence services are testing the waters for any future conflict with Russia—one that NATO and EU members say they are actively preparing for.

We have reached an existential crossroads in the SMO.

For Russia, the very red lines it deemed necessary to define regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons have been blatantly violated by not only Ukraine, but its western allies.

President Trump, who has been claiming to support a peace process between Russia and Ukraine, must now decide as to where the United States stands considering these developments.

His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has acknowledged that under the previous administration of Joe Biden the United States was engaged in a proxy war with Russia. Trump’s Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, recently acknowledged the same about NATO.

In short, by continuing to support Ukraine, both the US and NATO have become active participants in a conflict which has now crossed the threshold regarding the employment of nuclear weapons.

The United States and the world stand on the precipice of a nuclear Armageddon of our own making.

Either we separate ourselves from the policies that have brought us to this point, or we accept the consequences of our actions, and pay the price.

We cannot live in a world where are future is dictated by the patience and restraint of a Russian leader in the face of provocations we are ourselves responsible for.

Ukraine, not Russia, represents an existential threat to humanity.

NATO, not Russia, is responsible for encouraging Ukraine to behave in such a reckless manner.

So, too, is the United States. The contradictory statements made by US policy makers regarding Russia provide political cover for Ukraine and its NATO enablers to plan and execute operations like Operation Spiderweb.

Senators Graham and Blumenthal should be called out for sedition if their intervention in Ukraine was done to deliberately sabotage a peace process President Trump has said is central to his vision of American national security going forward.

But it is Trump himself who must decide the fate of the world.

In the coming hours we will undoubtedly hear from the Russian President about how Russia will respond to this existential provocation.

Trump, too, must respond.

By telling Graham and Blumenthal and their supporters to stand down regarding Russian sanctions.

By ordering NATO and the EU to cease and desist from continuing to provide military and financial support to Ukraine.

And by taking sides in the SMO.

Choose Ukraine and trigger a nuclear war.

Choose Russia and save the world.

Scott Ritter is a former Marine intelligence officer with extensive experience in arms control and disarmament, and an expert on US-Russian relations. His work can be found at ScottRitter.com. He is the author of several books, including his latest, Highway to Hell: The Armageddon Chronicles, 2014-2025, published by Clarity Press.

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The ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, held on May 27, 2025, in Kuala Lumpur, brought together leaders from ASEAN, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and China to discuss strengthening economic resilience and cooperation. The summit emphasized collaboration for regional and global economic growth, marking a significant new step in the global transition towards multipolarity.

I discussed the key goals of the event and its broader geopolitical implications with Dr. Warwick Powell, an Adjunct Professor at Queensland University in Australia and a senior fellow at Taihe Institute.

Reviving the Silk Road: A Strategic Convergence of China, the Gulf States, and ASEAN
The recent summit marks a significant moment of geopolitical convergence, uniting China, the Gulf States, and ASEAN in a strategic partnership rooted in deepening bilateral ties. This alliance reflects immediate global shifts, including disruptions from U.S. policy changes, while also addressing medium-term development goals and long-term historical continuity. Trade and investment links between these regions have grown substantially, forming a foundation for shared economic trajectories. The collaboration echoes ancient connections from the Silk Road era, highlighting a renewed commitment to economic integration, cultural exchange, and regional stability amid a transforming global landscape. This event underscores a pivotal realignment in global power dynamics.

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ASEAN, Multipolarity, and the Rejection of Great Power Rivalry
Recent geopolitical developments underscore a shift away from U.S.-led unilateralism toward a more collaborative, multipolar world order. The increasing alignment between ASEAN, the Gulf States, and China signals a message to Washington and other global powers: sovereign nations can advance their interests through cooperation, rather than division and belligerence. The U.S. has pursued a strategy of isolating China through fragmented bilateral trade deals, but this approach is faltering as nations recognize the value of unity and interdependence. ASEAN, with its roots in post-colonial neutrality and the non-aligned movement, remains committed to consensus-building rather than taking sides in a perceived U.S.-China rivalry. This binary framing, often promoted by Washington, overlooks the growing agency of regional blocs like ASEAN, which seek to shape a stable, multipolar system rather than return to hegemonic dominance. For ASEAN, the real choice isn’t between competing superpowers, but between perpetuating centralized global control versus fostering a more distributed, cooperative global network. This emerging order requires new institutions and partnerships designed to manage complexity without relying on a single dominant power. ASEAN’s stance exemplifies a broader global movement toward balance, autonomy, and a reimagined structure for international stability and shared prosperity.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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The Gulf States and the Strategic Shift Toward a Post-Petrodollar Future

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Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, a frequent writer for Bloomberg, Forbes, and CNBC, and the founder of an investment macro-trends newsletter - The Bear Traps Report.

Echoes of 2008: Watching the Warning Signs
Reflecting on his 2008 crisis experience, Larry McDonald warns of rising debt risks today. As in 2007, similar concerns voiced across sectors signal potential trouble, especially in student loans, buy-now-pay-later, and tertiary lenders, though not yet at 2008 levels.

Confidence Shaken: America’s Fiscal Chaos and the Global Bond Reckoning
Global bond investors have faced a whirlwind of challenges: nearly $1 trillion in U.S. deficit spending in late 2024, chaotic tariff announcements from Trump in April, and mixed fiscal signals from both parties. Bipartisan dysfunction in Washington and the growing market volatility (and unpredictability) have made the U.S. look increasingly like an emerging market. Rate cuts, AI-driven capital spending, and erratic policymaking have created a volatile environment. Investors are losing faith in the dollar, with many forced to reduce exposure. Treasury auctions have weakened, and inflationary risks are growing. The U.S. isn’t losing reserve currency status just yet —but decades of global confidence are unraveling, and the bond market may soon strike back.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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Breaking the Safety Net: Bonds No Longer a Crisis Hedge

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Adam Smith once sang the praises of the “invisible hand”, the notion that when an individual pursues his self-interest under conditions of justice, he unintentionally promotes the good of society. Smith derived this theory based upon his belief that there existed inherent principles within man which interested him in the fortune of others which made rendering their happiness a priority for achieving happiness himself, even though he gained no other benefit from doing so.

In this way, Smith viewed capitalism as a force of good for society.

Karl Marx took the opposite approach when it came to assessing capitalism, viewing it as a revolutionary economic system that, while unleashing unprecedented productivity and innovation, carried within it the seeds of its own destruction.

Capitalism, Marx believed, lured society in with false promises of prosperity before consuming everything in its path.

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Trump Watch is a new weekly “report card” on all things Trump hosted by Scott Ritter for paid subscribers only. Scott interviews one guest on one topic in each episode. In Episode Four, Dr. Nomi Prins offers an extensive analysis of President Trump’s tariff policies and related economic issues.

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Greetings, All!

It’s been a long and very eventful week. Let’s catch up on the latest top headlines, opinions, and recommendations.

In addition to the top headlines in economics, finance, and geopolitics, at the end of the Weekly Newsletter, there is a brand new section - Key Events This Week - to help you stay current on the most important upcoming dates.

The Ukraine Crisis: The Secret Power Behind Zelensky - Who’s Really in Charge? - Interview with Dr. Nicolai Petro

I had a fascinating conversation with Dr. Nicolai Petro, a prominent political scientist and a leading expert on Ukraine and Russia. The interview was truly eye-opening, as was Dr. Petro’s book, The Tragedy of Ukraine.

The evolution of Ukrainian politics post-2014 reveals deep internal divisions shaped by historical, linguistic, and cultural differences. While President Poroshenko was democratically elected and initially recognized by Russia, his administration escalated tensions by redefining local unrest in Donbas as a war with Russia, abandoning early peace frameworks like the Minsk Accords. This shift coincided with the growing power of far-right nationalist movements, primarily rooted in Western Ukraine, which gained influence through foreign funding and the Maidan coup. These Western-funded groups promoted a narrow Galician identity and marginalized other Ukrainian identities, especially the predominantly Russian-speaking populations of eastern and southern Ukraine. Under President Zelensky, initially elected on a peace platform, media freedom and cultural pluralism have been severely restricted, further entrenching a hardline nationalist agenda. Independent voices and opposition media have been suppressed, while dissenting narratives are labeled pro-Russian. As the war continues, Zelensky’s legitimacy relies increasingly on nationalist factions who reject compromise. The result is a political environment hostile to the millions of Ukrainians identifying with the Malaros or Eastern Ukrainian identity.

We also discussed:

• The origins of Ukrainian nationalism

• The crisis of Ukrainian identity: Russia vs. Poland

• Post-Maidan nationalist politics in Ukrainian politics

• A path toward conflict resolution

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Prepare for Economic CRISIS as Money Supply Declines and Government Spending Surges - Interview with Dr. Steve Hanke

Contrary to popular belief and political rhetoric, particularly from former President Trump, the U.S. trade deficit is not caused by foreigners "ripping off" America. Instead, it results from Americans spending more than the nation produces (its Gross National Product). To balance this excess spending, the U.S. runs a trade deficit—an accounting necessity, not a sign of economic failure. The deficit is financed by capital inflows, as foreigners purchase American assets, such as bonds and equities. This inflow of capital makes the trade deficit sustainable and even beneficial in some ways.

The trade deficit is thus not a policy failure or threat, but a reflection of broader macroeconomic choices. Efforts to "fix" it through tariffs are misguided. Tariffs do not reduce the overall trade deficit; they only shift where imports come from, distorting trade patterns rather than correcting any imbalance. For instance, heavy tariffs on Chinese goods would reduce imports from China but increase them from other countries. Ultimately, the misunderstanding of basic accounting identities leads to unnecessary concern and harmful trade policies. The focus should be on smarter economic policy, not blaming foreign nations or relying on counterproductive tariffs.

We also discussed:

• $500 Billion in Unrealized Losses on U.S. banks’ books

• The impact of new banking regulations, specifically Basel III, on U.S. banks

• How the decline in money supply impacts inflation

Those of you interested in taxes, personal finance, and small businesses might find my second YouTube channel, Behind the Numbers, interesting. I relaunched it this week, and moving forward, you’ll find weekly content dedicated to helping you become an entrepreneur, personal and business taxes, and finance. There will be interviews, too! You are welcome to subscribe (it’s free!) here: Behind the Numbers on YouTube.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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• The House of Representatives passed Trump’s “big and beautiful” bill.

  It proposes $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, including reductions to Medicaid and other social programs. As the bill moves to the Senate, there will be adjustments. However, the key takeaways are as follows:

  • Permanent Tax Cuts: It makes the individual and corporate tax cuts from 2017 permanent, including a 20% deduction for pass-through businesses and a reduced corporate tax rate.

  • Child Tax Credit: The child tax credit is increased to $2,500 through 2028, providing more relief for families.

  • State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction: The SALT deduction cap is raised to $30,000 for taxpayers below $500,000, benefiting residents in high-tax states.

  • Healthcare Provisions: The bill adds work requirements to Medicaid, increases coverage fees, and prohibits Medicaid from funding gender-affirming care and abortion services.

• US consumers' expectations about their financial situation over the next year dropped to an all-time low in May. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumer expectations are now lower than in 2008 and the late 1970s, when inflation was at 12-13%. 1 year ago, these expectations were 8 times higher at 2.5%.

  

• The US Treasury said in a statement that by early next year, the country will stop circulating new pennies. Businesses will need to start rounding up or down to the nearest 5 cents. A penny currently costs 4 cents to make. Cutting production is set to save $56 million per year.

• According to the CBO, the US debt-to-GDP ratio is set to reach 220% by 2055. By comparison, in 2020, the deficit hit 14.7% of GDP, only below World War II levels.

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I had a fascinating conversation with Dr. Nicolai Petro, a prominent political scientist and Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island. Professor Petro has written a fascinating book, “The Tragedy of Ukraine: What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution.” This is a must-read for anyone interested in the origins of the Ukraine-Russia conflict as well as the details of Ukraine’s politics for generations.

The conflict in Ukraine can be viewed through the lens of classical Greek tragedy, where individuals unknowingly author their downfall. Ukraine’s turmoil stems from deep cultural divisions, primarily between western and eastern regions. Western Ukraine, historically part of the Austro-Hungarian and Polish territories, has long fostered a distinct national identity, while eastern Ukraine, largely Russian-speaking, shares deeper ties with Russia. These divergent identities have struggled to coexist. Historically, Ukrainian nationalism emerged in opposition—first to Poland, then the Soviet Union—suggesting that the movement has often relied on defining itself through enmity. The tragedy lies in failing to recognize this self-perpetuated conflict.

Origins of Ukrainian Nationalism

Ukrainian nationalism, rooted in early 20th-century émigré thought and funding, sought to forge a unified national identity by creating a state where that monoethnic identity could exist. In Western Ukraine, the vision of a nation-state typically had excluded Russian-speaking, Orthodox populations of central and eastern Ukraine. Nationalist efforts prioritized a narrow definition—Greek Catholic, Ukrainian-speaking, western-rooted—while marginalizing others. Internal divisions, betrayals, and competing visions of identity have plagued Ukraine’s history, revealing a deep struggle to reconcile regional diversity with an imposed, singular idea of what it means to be truly Ukrainian.

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Ukrainian Identity: Poland vs. Russia

Ukrainian identity has long been shaped by its complex relationship with both Russia and Poland. Historically, many Ukrainians identified as "maloros" or "Southern Russians," especially in central and eastern regions, where the Russian language and culture predominated. Western Ukrainian nationalism, influenced by Austro-Hungarian and Polish legacies, promoted a narrow identity centered on language, religion, and region. Post-Maidan governments increasingly advanced this Galician-centric nationalism, marginalizing other identities and minorities. The 2014 Maidan movement, seen by some as a nationalist coup, disrupted legal transitions of power and deepened societal divisions. These tensions reflect Ukraine’s unresolved struggle to define an inclusive national identity.

Post-Maidan Ukrainian Politics

The evolution of Ukrainian politics post-2014 reveals deep internal divisions shaped by historical, linguistic, and cultural differences. While President Poroshenko was democratically elected and initially recognized by Russia, his administration escalated tensions by redefining local unrest in Donbas as a war with Russia, abandoning early peace frameworks like the Minsk Accords. This shift coincided with the growing power of far-right nationalist movements, primarily rooted in Western Ukraine, which gained influence through foreign funding and the Maidan coup. These Western-funded groups promoted a narrow Galician identity and marginalized other Ukrainian identities, especially the predominantly Russian-speaking populations of eastern and southern Ukraine. Under President Zelensky, initially elected on a peace platform, media freedom and cultural pluralism have been severely restricted, further entrenching a hardline nationalist agenda. Independent voices and opposition media have been suppressed, while dissenting narratives are labeled pro-Russian. As the war continues, Zelensky’s legitimacy relies increasingly on nationalist factions who reject compromise. The result is a political environment hostile to the millions of Ukrainians identifying with the Malaros or Eastern Ukrainian identity. Without political pluralism or avenues for peaceful negotiation, Ukraine’s internal divisions risk becoming permanently entrenched, threatening the long-term stability and inclusiveness of the Ukrainian state.

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A Path Toward Conflict Resolution

War sustains itself on hatred, but peace inevitably dissolves it, reopening human connections and long-held ties, particularly in Ukraine, where many have relatives in Russia. Over time, hostility fades, as seen in past conflicts like those between the U.S. and Mexico or post-WWII Europe. For Ukraine to prosper, reconciliation with Russia will likely be necessary. The current conflict stems not solely from Ukraine’s choices but also from NATO and EU policies that excluded Russia. A lasting peace may depend on Ukraine adopting a neutral stance, engaging both Europe and Russia independently, rather than aligning as an adversary. True sovereignty lies in balanced diplomacy.

Peace negotiations often appear stalled due to public posturing, but real progress happens quietly through back channels. Diplomatic theater—like symbolic disputes—masks ongoing bargaining. War and diplomacy coexist until both sides reach exhaustion or shifting interests favor peace. Ultimately, peace emerges when those profiting from war see more gain in its end.

📚 Order your copy of Professor Nicolai Petro's The Tragedy of Ukraine: https://www.amazon.com/Tragedy-Ukraine-Classical-Resolution-Contemporary-ebook/dp/B0BKXXSZG5?ref_=ast_author_mpb

Learn more about Dr. Nicolai Petro’s research here: https://www.npetro.net