TABLE OF CONTENTS

MARKET RECAP

COMMODITIES: The ‘Lose-Lose’ Economy: Why Both Bulls And Bears Could Suffer

MARKETS: S&P500 Breaks 6,100: ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ Or New Bull Market?

COMMODITIES: Economic Earthquake: Why ‘Big’ Bill Shakes Up Everything

MARKETS: Are Markets On Verge Of Imploding? Trader Reveals Key Signals

ECONOMY: Personal Incomes Plummet: What’s Behind The $109-Billion Decline?

CRYPTO: Bitcoin ‘Tidal Wave’ Approaching As It Becomes World’s Reserve Asset

CRYPTO: Bitcoin vs. Real Estate: Grant and Gary Cardone Twins Settle Debate

WHAT TO WATCH

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MARKET RECAP

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their record-breaking streak this week, hitting new all-time highs for the third time in four days, as a stronger-than-expected June jobs report showed 147,000 jobs added, versus the anticipated 106,000, with unemployment dropping to 4.1%. The robust employment data diminished Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, with traders nearly eliminating prospects for a July reduction. Tesla's June delivery figures, released on Wednesday, exceeded expectations and provided a comprehensive view of the company's first-half performance, contributing to the continued strength of the tech sector.

Meanwhile, the House and Senate passed President Trump's "One Big, Beautiful Bill" budget package ahead of the July 4 deadline, while trade negotiations with multiple partners advanced beyond the initial July 9 tariff deadline. The Bill will now wait to be signed by the President. Investors remain focused on upcoming economic data, particularly inflation and employment figures, as well as potential Federal Reserve policy moves. While equities are at record highs, some caution persists due to mixed economic signals and global uncertainties. U.S. markets are closed on July 4 for the holiday and will reopen on July 7.

Thomas Hayes, Founder, Chairman, and Managing Member of Great Hill Capital, outlined an expansionary strategy echoing post-World War II recovery as Trump's budget legislation advanced through Congress. Hayes argued that current 120% debt-to-GDP ratios mirror the conditions of the 1950s, when America successfully reduced fiscal burdens through sustained growth rather than the Hooverian austerity approach. "You're not going to cut your way to prosperity," Hayes explained, advocating nominal GDP growth above inflation to organically reduce debt ratios.

Hayes criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, comparing him unfavorably to past monetary authorities. "Powell is not the right guy for the job right now because he doesn't understand history," Hayes said, noting that the chairman’s prediction-dependent rather than data-dependent approach. Hayes pointed to Amazon executives reporting no inflationary pressures as evidence that monetary authorities ignored ground-level realities.

Investment strategy centered on Hayes's "unmagnificent 493" thesis, predicting small and mid-cap outperformance as technology earnings growth decelerates from 30% to 10%. At the same time, the remaining S&P components are expected to accelerate from negative territory to 10.3% growth by early 2026.

Market Movements

The following assets experienced dramatic swings in price this past week. Data are up-to-date as of July 3 at approximately 1pm EST.

CVNA - up 13.66%

HOOD - up 11.69%

ORCL - up 11.51%

GM - up 10.14%

PLTR - down 6.86%

SPOT - down 6.55%

DXY - down .03%

Bitcoin - up 2.06%

Gold - up 1.65%

10-year Treasury Yield - up 2.18%

S&P 500 [SPX] - up 1.37%

Russell 2000 [RUT] - up 3.17%

COMMODITIES: The ‘Lose-Lose’ Economy: Why Both Bulls And Bears Could Suffer

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warned that Bitcoin reaching $100,000 represents a speculative ceiling similar to the NASDAQ's 5,000 in 2000, while gold's outperformance signals an economic slowdown ahead.

"Since Bitcoin closed above $100,000, gold's up about 30%, Bitcoin's up 7%, stock market's barely unchanged," McGlone said, calling this threshold comparable to historic market peaks. He predicted Bitcoin could "drop a zero" alongside broader cryptocurrency weakness.

McGlone outlined a deflationary scenario in which gold rises in response to economic deceleration rather than inflation. His $3,500 gold target would signal trouble for overvalued equities. "Right now, the US stock market cap to GDP is 2.1 times, the highest since 1929," he explained.

Oil faces structural headwinds toward $40 per barrel due to excess North American supply and declining demand in China. The Dow-to-gold ratio exhibits similar patterns to those observed during the 1971 monetary regime change.

McGlone characterized current markets as potentially "irrational and delusional," with the Fed facing impossible choices between controlling asset inflation and supporting economic growth.

MARKETS: S&P500 Breaks 6,100: ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ Or New Bull Market?

Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, maintained long positions across equity markets despite expressing skepticism about sustainability as major indices approached record levels following an Israel-Iran ceasefire.

"We're long the markets," Vermeulen said, describing positions in QQQ, S&P 500, and Bitcoin. "When the charts are showing strength, you need to follow the charts, not what you think or feel."

The S&P 500 approached its February high of 6,150, while the NASDAQ achieved new all-time highs. Vermeulen warned this could represent a "double top" or "fake breakout" designed to trap investors. "The market probably needs to hold up for a week to say okay, it's holding that level," he explained.

Oil prices remained volatile following Middle East strikes, but Vermeulen predicted continued weakness. "The trend is down. I believe we're going to be stuck in this lower quadrant for quite some time," he said, forecasting eventual moves into the $50s despite recent spikes above $70.

Gold consolidated near $3,300 after testing $3,500, with Vermeulen targeting $3,750. Silver surged independently, suggesting a broader momentum in precious metals. "Gold, from a technical standpoint, is in an uptrend; it's in a long-term bull market," he noted.

Bitcoin displayed "strong bull flag patterns" with potential targets around $134,000 to $135,000, though Vermeulen cautioned that it would likely follow broader market weakness.

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COMMODITIES: Economic Earthquake: Why ‘Big’ Bill Shakes Up Everything

E.B. Tucker, founder of the Tucker Letter, argued that gold's massive rally to $3,400 has already priced in upcoming Federal Reserve easing and fiscal expansion, predicting sideways action ahead.

"I think this move from 2000 to 3,400, that's your move," Tucker explained, noting gold typically moves before events that would logically drive it higher. He expects two Fed rate cuts to normalize the yield curve and incentivize development spending.

Tucker criticized the mining industry's failure to capitalize on gold's 60% surge in value. "AI comes in and gets big, AI companies get bigger, gold gets big, gold companies get smaller," he said, describing the sector as fundamentally broken with excessive executive compensation and poor shareholder returns.

Despite attending the Bitcoin Vegas conference as a skeptic, Tucker increased his Bitcoin holdings during the event. He compared the energy difference between somber gold conferences and Bitcoin's elaborate entertainment spectacle.

Tucker's most bullish outlook centers on infrastructure building components, calling it "an unbelievable time to own certain components that are needed to build stuff in the US" amid massive consolidation and acquisition activity in overlooked sectors.

MARKETS: Are Markets On Verge Of Imploding? Trader Reveals Key Signals

Jason Shapiro, founder of Crowded Market Report, predicted continued market upside despite recent volatility from Middle East conflicts and trade tensions.

"I think the market still has upside to go," Shapiro said, citing positioning data showing investors remain underweight compared to previous highs. He relies heavily on the Commitment of Traders' reports, which index positioning from 0 to 100, where readings above 95 indicate excessive optimism.

Silver recently hit extremely long positioning levels, while gold paradoxically saw speculators selling during its rally to new highs. "They're less long positioning in gold than they were 3 months ago," Shapiro explained, calling this counterintuitive behavior bullish for the metal.

Oil entered a bull phase on May 5th, well before the Middle East escalation, when OPEC announced an increase in production. "The market bottomed on that day, which was a negative news day," he noted.

Shapiro emphasized artificial intelligence investments as the center of the market. "The money that's being invested into this space is not stopping," he said, highlighting energy, nuclear, and uranium sectors.

The position trader executes only two to three trades monthly, warning against overtrading. "People love the action; they want to catch every tick," he said, identifying this as traders' biggest mistake.

ECONOMY: Personal Incomes Plummet: What’s Behind The $109-Billion Decline?

Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited, outlined a troubling divergence between soaring markets and deteriorating economic fundamentals, drawing parallels to pre-financial crisis conditions.

"It reminds me personally of the 07-08 period," Elliott said, noting how real economy data suggested recession in late 2007 while stocks remained near highs through May 2008. Current conditions indicate that household demand has been negative on a real basis since the start of the year, while the S&P 500 approaches record levels.

Elliott highlighted frozen hiring as a key concern, historically preceding layoffs by 6-12 months. "While employers are keeping workers they have on payroll, they're not hiring anyone," he explained, noting this creates compounding effects of slower wage and employment growth.

Personal income data revealed a concerning weakness, with real consumption declining amid persistent inflation pressures. Elliott expects continued dollar weakness as foreign asset managers reduce overweight US positions.

Gold's recent decline reflects unwinding geopolitical premiums rather than fundamental concerns about dollar debasement. The Federal Reserve faces a challenging position with core PCE at 2.7%, well above the target, limiting easing options despite economic deceleration.

CRYPTO: Bitcoin ‘Tidal Wave’ Approaching As It Becomes World’s Reserve Asset

Simon Gerovich, president of Metaplanet, defended his company's 600,000-yen Bitcoin premium while outlining a never-sell accumulation strategy inspired by MicroStrategy's playbook.

"Medium to long-term Bitcoin treasury companies will outperform Bitcoin because they have this ability to grow their Bitcoin per share," Gerovich explained, citing Metaplanet's 190% BTC yield increase this year.

The company pivoted from struggling hospitality operations during the COVID-19 pandemic after Japanese retail investors faced personal income taxes of up to 55% on direct Bitcoin purchases. Metaplanet provides tax-efficient exposure through equity wrapper structures.

Gerovich described current market conditions as "phase one" accumulation lasting three to seven years, followed by "phase two" when Bitcoin reaches millions of dollars and companies leverage pristine balance sheets for banking services.

The executive emphasized permanent commitment to Bitcoin-only treasury policies. "No one should ever doubt that Metaplanet would buy anything other than Bitcoin," he said, dismissing companies that trade their holdings.

Metaplanet plans to convert its remaining hotel into a "Bitcoin hotel" featuring art museums and educational facilities to promote adoption across Japan.

CRYPTO: Bitcoin vs. Real Estate: Grant and Gary Cardone Twins Settle Debate

Twin entrepreneurs Grant and Gary Cardone presented contrasting investment philosophies during a wide-ranging interview that covered Bitcoin, real estate, and wealth-building strategies.

Grant Cardone, who built a billion-dollar real estate empire, surprised audiences by dismissing homeownership. "Owning a home is a horrible, horrible, horrible investment," he said. "The house could triple; you never hear the wife going, 'Let's sell it and make our 300%.' That never happens. It's not an investment."

The brothers, who grew up middle-class in Louisiana after their father died when they were ten, took divergent career paths. Gary worked for seventeen years in corporate oil and gas while Grant pursued independent entrepreneurship. Both achieved substantial success through extreme focus and dedication.

Their money philosophy centers on avoiding traditional savings. "You cannot save money," Grant explained, advocating constant investment over emergency funds. "People should not save, people should invest, not save."

Gary emerged as the Bitcoin advocate, while Grant maintains heavy real estate exposure but increasingly incorporates Bitcoin. "Bitcoin is the greatest investment risk-adjusted and energy-adjusted," Gary said, noting he never receives maintenance calls about digital assets.

Grant's "Undercover Billionaire" experience demonstrated his core principle: "I never spent a penny" during the ninety-day challenge, instead securing funding from others while building a $5.5 million marketing company.

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What To Watch

Tuesday, July 8 -

• Consumer credit

Wednesday, July 9 -

• Wholesale inventories

• Minutes of Fed’s May FOMC meeting

Thursday, July 10 -

• Initial jobless claims

Friday, July 11 -

• Monthly US federal budget

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[Iranian Ballistic Missiles. Source: Moslem Danesh via unsplash.com]

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ECONOMY: Economic ‘Murder’ Alert: Is The Next Big Crisis Here?

ECONOMY: Overpriced Markets Set To Burst: Will Layoffs Freeze The Economy?

ECONOMY: Fed's Bold Announcement: Powell Makes Shocking Economic Forecast

ECONOMY: 'Zombie' Companies In Danger Of Collapse; $2 Trillion Credit Bubble Popping?

ECONOMY: Why You're Getting Poorer: Major Slowdown Ahead

CRYPTO: Bitcoin to $250k By December; The Money Printing Storm Is Coming

WHAT TO WATCH

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MARKET RECAP

Markets opened Monday with heightened volatility as investors assessed the implications of weekend U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions. Oil futures initially surged over 4% on supply disruption fears, with Brent crude reaching $79 per barrel and WTI climbing above $76, before moderating as traders questioned Iran's commitment to retaliatory threats.

The situation intensified Monday afternoon when Iran launched missile strikes on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, though no American casualties were reported. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iranian retaliation would be "the worst mistake they've ever made" while urging China to dissuade Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, noting Beijing's heavy dependence on the waterway for oil imports. Iran's parliament approved measures to potentially block the strait—a chokepoint for 20% of global oil flows—though final authorization rests with the Supreme National Security Council. U.S. equity markets showed mixed performance amid the escalating crisis, with energy stocks rallying alongside rising crude prices as investors remained focused on potential disruptions to critical shipping lanes.

June 16-23: U.S. markets showed resilience amid uncertainty last week as investors weighed evolving geopolitical developments and mixed economic indicators. The week began with modest gains following Iran's stated desire to end hostilities with Israel, but markets remained volatile as the conflict continued to weigh on sentiment. By Friday's close, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 posted weekly declines, while the Nasdaq Composite managed a slight gain, marking its third positive week in four. The Dow closed at $42,171.66 on June 18, down from earlier levels, reflecting broader market uncertainty. Economic data painted a concerning picture, with analysts noting "materially weaker" readings across sales, output, and housing metrics, while rising import prices suggested mounting inflationary pressures from trade policies. Despite equity market struggles, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience, trading around $104,690 on June 20, maintaining levels near recent highs and representing a remarkable 61% gain from the previous year.

Doomberg characterized escalating Middle East tensions as part of a broader global conflict during an interview following Iranian parliamentary votes to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz.

"This is just the next phase of World War III," Doomberg said, arguing that historians will view current conflicts as interconnected warfare between NATO and an axis of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Oil markets remained surprisingly calm at $73 per barrel despite the strategic chokepoint threat. "The oil market is pricing in that the strait will not be closed," he explained.

The analyst criticized recent Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as potentially counterproductive. Weekend attacks achieved minimal damage to critical infrastructure, prompting inflammatory responses from Russian officials about nuclear proliferation. Former Russian President Medvedev's social media posts referenced supplying nuclear warheads to Iran, drawing sharp rebukes from American officials.

Doomberg outlined catastrophic scenarios should the strait actually close, noting "there's only a dozen core targets that Iran would have to take out to [disrupt] everyday life in Israel." Such closures would eliminate global oil pricing mechanisms while devastating European energy supplies.

"Wars are much easier to start than to get out of or to win," Doomberg warned.

Market Movements

The following assets experienced dramatic swings in price this past week. Data are up-to-date as of June 20 at approximately 4pm EST.

COIN - up 27.06%

CRWV - up 24.72%

AMD - up 10.4%

APP - down 10.92%

ACN - down 8.45%

DXY - up .52%

Bitcoin - down 1.68%

Gold - down 2.62%

10-year Treasury Yield - down .69%

S&P 500 [SPX] - down .61%

Russell 2000 [RUT] - down .27%

ECONOMY: Economic ‘Murder’ Alert: Is The Next Big Crisis Here?

Jim Bianco predicted that rising inflation would justify the Federal Reserve's caution as geopolitical tensions escalated between Israel and Iran. The strategist warned that tariff-driven price increases were beginning to appear in high-frequency data despite benign official reports.

"I actually think they are right, and I actually do think inflation is coming," Bianco explained regarding Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish stance. He noted that online price-tracking services had shown increases over recent weeks that had not yet been reflected in government statistics. Powell confirmed expectations for tariff effects to emerge throughout the summer months.

Market anxiety intensified as prediction markets assigned 63% probability to US military action against Iran before the month-end. Trump delivered an ultimatum demanding that Tehran negotiate or face potential bunker-buster bomb supplies to Israel. "Iran's got a lot of trouble," Trump said, while maintaining strategic ambiguity about military plans.

Bianco recommended defensive positioning across energy stocks, gold, and money market funds. He coined the "four-five-six markets" thesis, predicting cash returns of 4%, bonds of 5%, and equities of 6% annually due to elevated valuations. The strategist criticized overpriced technology names, particularly the Mag Seven, arguing they required "lots of things going right" amid heightened uncertainty.

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ECONOMY: Overpriced Markets Set To Burst: Will Layoffs Freeze The Economy?

Steve Hanke warned of an impending economic slowdown as escalating Middle East conflicts and domestic policy uncertainty create headwinds for growth. The monetary expert criticized both military interventions and sanctions as counterproductive tools that actually strengthen the targeted regimes rather than achieving their stated objectives.

"All sanctions are a fool's game; they never work," Hanke explained during analysis of Iran-Israel tensions. He argued that financial sanctions represent a form of warfare through dollar weaponization, citing recent criticism of American monetary policy. The professor advocated for the immediate audit of defense spending.

Hanke dismissed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's inflation forecasts, noting that "tariffs don't create inflation, changes in the money supply create inflation." He predicted continued disinflation, as money supply growth remains below his target rate of 6%. The economist called both Trump and Powell financially illiterate for focusing on interest rates rather than monetary aggregates.

Regarding fiscal policy, Hanke condemned the "Big Beautiful Bill" as fiscally irresponsible, particularly defense spending increases. He recommended 50% Pentagon budget cuts, noting the department cannot pass audits. The professor suggested following Warren Buffett's strategy of holding cash and quality assets while awaiting bubble deflation.

ECONOMY: Fed's Bold Announcement: Powell Makes Shocking Economic Forecast

Lobo Tiggre predicted zero Federal Reserve rate cuts this year despite official projections of two reductions. He cited Chairman Powell's unprecedented warnings about tariff-driven inflation as evidence of policy paralysis ahead.

"I think there's a good chance we get no cuts," Tiggre explained during post-FOMC analysis. Powell delivered unusually stark inflation expectations during the press conference, stating that "everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months" from tariff implementation. The Fed maintained unchanged rates while acknowledging economic uncertainty.

He noted market reactions during Powell's remarks, observing that "when Powell started talking, suddenly things went down" across major indices. The analyst dismissed traditional inflation hedging assumptions, explaining that gold "tends to lead inflation" rather than respond to it contemporaneously.

Silver's recent outperformance versus gold caught attention as the metal approached $37 per ounce. Tiggre suggested industrial demand rather than safe-haven buying drove the rally, noting concurrent moves in platinum and palladium. He recommended defensive positioning in uranium and copper stocks, citing supply shortfalls and the Trump administration's support for nuclear development. Trump's criticism of Powell as "a stupid person" highlighted ongoing executive-Fed tensions over monetary policy independence.

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ECONOMY: 'Zombie' Companies In Danger Of Collapse; $2 Trillion Credit Bubble Popping?

Clem Chambers predicted escalating global conflicts would drive continued outperformance in defense stocks and precious metals. The ANewFN founder characterized current conditions as "World War 2.5" due to rising tensions across multiple geopolitical flashpoints simultaneously.

"I kind of see it as World War 2.5," Chambers explained during market analysis. He noted that European defense contractors had significantly outperformed their American counterparts as NATO allies pursued military independence. Germany's remilitarization plans reflected broader continental shifts toward self-reliance following the United States' strategic pivots.

Chambers highlighted platinum's 20% gain since his May Forbes article, maintaining heavy positioning in the metal alongside gold. He distinguished between crisis assets, stating, "Bitcoin is for flight, gold is for war," when describing investor rotation patterns during geopolitical stress.

The analyst warned of brewing private credit risks, comparing current conditions to those of the pre-2008 mortgage crisis. He estimated $2 trillion in opaque lending arrangements between interconnected financial institutions represented systemic vulnerabilities. "Zombie companies," which survived on perpetual refinancing, faced potential collapse as borrowing costs increased.

Chambers recommended Warren Buffett's literature for novice investors, while advocating for broad index fund exposure over individual stock selection. He predicted continued market volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainty rather than traditional economic fundamentals.

ECONOMY: Why You're Getting Poorer: Major Slowdown Ahead

Donald Boudreaux validated World Bank projections that tariffs would slash American economic growth by half, calling the forecast "very credible." The professor argued that Trump's trade policies would "unambiguously make Americans poorer" by disrupting complex global supply networks.

Boudreaux challenged the "China stole our jobs" narrative, noting that unemployment remains low while manufacturing output approaches all-time highs. "You cannot find any evidence for it in the data," he explained regarding job theft claims. Manufacturing employment declined primarily due to mechanization rather than trade, with technology accounting for 80% of workforce shifts since the 1950s.

Legal challenges to presidential tariff authority gained traction as federal courts questioned Trump's use of emergency powers. Boudreaux predicted constitutional violations, arguing that trade deficits spanning decades hardly constitute emergencies justifying sweeping duties.

The economist expressed alarm over fiscal deterioration, stating that "any semblance of fiscal sanity that existed in America now seems to be gone." He warned future taxpayers would bear deficit burdens through higher taxes, reduced services, or dangerous debt monetization.

Regarding the 2008 crisis, Boudreaux blamed government housing policies rather than deregulation, citing federal mandates for subprime mortgage purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

CRYPTO: Bitcoin to $250k By December; The Money Printing Storm Is Coming

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and BitMEX co-founder, warned of brewing tensions between generations over asset ownership during a wide-ranging interview covering cryptocurrency markets and global economic dynamics.

"I think there's going to be a lot of intergenerational conflict," Hayes said. "The boomers have stocks to sell. Does anyone want these stocks? Maybe to some extent. Do they want that big suburban house? I don't know."

Hayes predicted Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by year-end, driven by massive money printing. "Everything leads to money printing basically. That's the solution of everything," he explained.

The crypto veteran discussed recent volatility in Asian currencies, particularly Taiwan's 10% dollar surge against the USD. He attributed this to life insurers repatriating funds and hedge funds unwinding carry trades under pressure from potential Trump administration policies.

On altcoins, Hayes remained skeptical of venture capital-backed projects. "Most of them are probably not going to go up in price again because they don't have product market fit," he said. Hayes also addressed Korean trading culture, noting "very low opportunity for most individuals to escape a shitty life" drives heavy speculation. The interview touched on capital controls, exchange competition, and traditional finance entering crypto markets.

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WHAT TO WATCH

Tuesday, June 24:

• Fed Chair Powell testifies to House Financial Service Committee

Wednesday, June 25:

• New home sales

Thursday, June 26:

• Advanced US trade balance in goods

• Initial jobless claims

• GDP (second revision)

• Pending home sales

Friday, June 27:

• Consumer sentiment

• Personal income

• Personal spending

• PCE index

• Core PCE index