The ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, held on May 27, 2025, in Kuala Lumpur, brought together leaders from ASEAN, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and China to discuss strengthening economic resilience and cooperation. The summit emphasized collaboration for regional and global economic growth, marking a significant new step in the global transition towards multipolarity.

I discussed the key goals of the event and its broader geopolitical implications with Dr. Warwick Powell, an Adjunct Professor at Queensland University in Australia and a senior fellow at Taihe Institute.

Reviving the Silk Road: A Strategic Convergence of China, the Gulf States, and ASEAN
The recent summit marks a significant moment of geopolitical convergence, uniting China, the Gulf States, and ASEAN in a strategic partnership rooted in deepening bilateral ties. This alliance reflects immediate global shifts, including disruptions from U.S. policy changes, while also addressing medium-term development goals and long-term historical continuity. Trade and investment links between these regions have grown substantially, forming a foundation for shared economic trajectories. The collaboration echoes ancient connections from the Silk Road era, highlighting a renewed commitment to economic integration, cultural exchange, and regional stability amid a transforming global landscape. This event underscores a pivotal realignment in global power dynamics.

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ASEAN, Multipolarity, and the Rejection of Great Power Rivalry
Recent geopolitical developments underscore a shift away from U.S.-led unilateralism toward a more collaborative, multipolar world order. The increasing alignment between ASEAN, the Gulf States, and China signals a message to Washington and other global powers: sovereign nations can advance their interests through cooperation, rather than division and belligerence. The U.S. has pursued a strategy of isolating China through fragmented bilateral trade deals, but this approach is faltering as nations recognize the value of unity and interdependence. ASEAN, with its roots in post-colonial neutrality and the non-aligned movement, remains committed to consensus-building rather than taking sides in a perceived U.S.-China rivalry. This binary framing, often promoted by Washington, overlooks the growing agency of regional blocs like ASEAN, which seek to shape a stable, multipolar system rather than return to hegemonic dominance. For ASEAN, the real choice isn’t between competing superpowers, but between perpetuating centralized global control versus fostering a more distributed, cooperative global network. This emerging order requires new institutions and partnerships designed to manage complexity without relying on a single dominant power. ASEAN’s stance exemplifies a broader global movement toward balance, autonomy, and a reimagined structure for international stability and shared prosperity.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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The Gulf States and the Strategic Shift Toward a Post-Petrodollar Future

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Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, a frequent writer for Bloomberg, Forbes, and CNBC, and the founder of an investment macro-trends newsletter - The Bear Traps Report.

Echoes of 2008: Watching the Warning Signs
Reflecting on his 2008 crisis experience, Larry McDonald warns of rising debt risks today. As in 2007, similar concerns voiced across sectors signal potential trouble, especially in student loans, buy-now-pay-later, and tertiary lenders, though not yet at 2008 levels.

Confidence Shaken: America’s Fiscal Chaos and the Global Bond Reckoning
Global bond investors have faced a whirlwind of challenges: nearly $1 trillion in U.S. deficit spending in late 2024, chaotic tariff announcements from Trump in April, and mixed fiscal signals from both parties. Bipartisan dysfunction in Washington and the growing market volatility (and unpredictability) have made the U.S. look increasingly like an emerging market. Rate cuts, AI-driven capital spending, and erratic policymaking have created a volatile environment. Investors are losing faith in the dollar, with many forced to reduce exposure. Treasury auctions have weakened, and inflationary risks are growing. The U.S. isn’t losing reserve currency status just yet —but decades of global confidence are unraveling, and the bond market may soon strike back.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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Breaking the Safety Net: Bonds No Longer a Crisis Hedge

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Greetings, All!

It’s been a long and very eventful week. Let’s catch up on the latest top headlines, opinions, and recommendations.

In addition to the top headlines in economics, finance, and geopolitics, at the end of the Weekly Newsletter, there is a brand new section - Key Events This Week - to help you stay current on the most important upcoming dates.

The Ukraine Crisis: The Secret Power Behind Zelensky - Who’s Really in Charge? - Interview with Dr. Nicolai Petro

I had a fascinating conversation with Dr. Nicolai Petro, a prominent political scientist and a leading expert on Ukraine and Russia. The interview was truly eye-opening, as was Dr. Petro’s book, The Tragedy of Ukraine.

The evolution of Ukrainian politics post-2014 reveals deep internal divisions shaped by historical, linguistic, and cultural differences. While President Poroshenko was democratically elected and initially recognized by Russia, his administration escalated tensions by redefining local unrest in Donbas as a war with Russia, abandoning early peace frameworks like the Minsk Accords. This shift coincided with the growing power of far-right nationalist movements, primarily rooted in Western Ukraine, which gained influence through foreign funding and the Maidan coup. These Western-funded groups promoted a narrow Galician identity and marginalized other Ukrainian identities, especially the predominantly Russian-speaking populations of eastern and southern Ukraine. Under President Zelensky, initially elected on a peace platform, media freedom and cultural pluralism have been severely restricted, further entrenching a hardline nationalist agenda. Independent voices and opposition media have been suppressed, while dissenting narratives are labeled pro-Russian. As the war continues, Zelensky’s legitimacy relies increasingly on nationalist factions who reject compromise. The result is a political environment hostile to the millions of Ukrainians identifying with the Malaros or Eastern Ukrainian identity.

We also discussed:

• The origins of Ukrainian nationalism

• The crisis of Ukrainian identity: Russia vs. Poland

• Post-Maidan nationalist politics in Ukrainian politics

• A path toward conflict resolution

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Prepare for Economic CRISIS as Money Supply Declines and Government Spending Surges - Interview with Dr. Steve Hanke

Contrary to popular belief and political rhetoric, particularly from former President Trump, the U.S. trade deficit is not caused by foreigners "ripping off" America. Instead, it results from Americans spending more than the nation produces (its Gross National Product). To balance this excess spending, the U.S. runs a trade deficit—an accounting necessity, not a sign of economic failure. The deficit is financed by capital inflows, as foreigners purchase American assets, such as bonds and equities. This inflow of capital makes the trade deficit sustainable and even beneficial in some ways.

The trade deficit is thus not a policy failure or threat, but a reflection of broader macroeconomic choices. Efforts to "fix" it through tariffs are misguided. Tariffs do not reduce the overall trade deficit; they only shift where imports come from, distorting trade patterns rather than correcting any imbalance. For instance, heavy tariffs on Chinese goods would reduce imports from China but increase them from other countries. Ultimately, the misunderstanding of basic accounting identities leads to unnecessary concern and harmful trade policies. The focus should be on smarter economic policy, not blaming foreign nations or relying on counterproductive tariffs.

We also discussed:

• $500 Billion in Unrealized Losses on U.S. banks’ books

• The impact of new banking regulations, specifically Basel III, on U.S. banks

• How the decline in money supply impacts inflation

Those of you interested in taxes, personal finance, and small businesses might find my second YouTube channel, Behind the Numbers, interesting. I relaunched it this week, and moving forward, you’ll find weekly content dedicated to helping you become an entrepreneur, personal and business taxes, and finance. There will be interviews, too! You are welcome to subscribe (it’s free!) here: Behind the Numbers on YouTube.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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• The House of Representatives passed Trump’s “big and beautiful” bill.

  It proposes $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, including reductions to Medicaid and other social programs. As the bill moves to the Senate, there will be adjustments. However, the key takeaways are as follows:

  • Permanent Tax Cuts: It makes the individual and corporate tax cuts from 2017 permanent, including a 20% deduction for pass-through businesses and a reduced corporate tax rate.

  • Child Tax Credit: The child tax credit is increased to $2,500 through 2028, providing more relief for families.

  • State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction: The SALT deduction cap is raised to $30,000 for taxpayers below $500,000, benefiting residents in high-tax states.

  • Healthcare Provisions: The bill adds work requirements to Medicaid, increases coverage fees, and prohibits Medicaid from funding gender-affirming care and abortion services.

• US consumers' expectations about their financial situation over the next year dropped to an all-time low in May. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumer expectations are now lower than in 2008 and the late 1970s, when inflation was at 12-13%. 1 year ago, these expectations were 8 times higher at 2.5%.

  

• The US Treasury said in a statement that by early next year, the country will stop circulating new pennies. Businesses will need to start rounding up or down to the nearest 5 cents. A penny currently costs 4 cents to make. Cutting production is set to save $56 million per year.

• According to the CBO, the US debt-to-GDP ratio is set to reach 220% by 2055. By comparison, in 2020, the deficit hit 14.7% of GDP, only below World War II levels.

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I had a fascinating conversation with Dr. Nicolai Petro, a prominent political scientist and Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island. Professor Petro has written a fascinating book, “The Tragedy of Ukraine: What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution.” This is a must-read for anyone interested in the origins of the Ukraine-Russia conflict as well as the details of Ukraine’s politics for generations.

The conflict in Ukraine can be viewed through the lens of classical Greek tragedy, where individuals unknowingly author their downfall. Ukraine’s turmoil stems from deep cultural divisions, primarily between western and eastern regions. Western Ukraine, historically part of the Austro-Hungarian and Polish territories, has long fostered a distinct national identity, while eastern Ukraine, largely Russian-speaking, shares deeper ties with Russia. These divergent identities have struggled to coexist. Historically, Ukrainian nationalism emerged in opposition—first to Poland, then the Soviet Union—suggesting that the movement has often relied on defining itself through enmity. The tragedy lies in failing to recognize this self-perpetuated conflict.

Origins of Ukrainian Nationalism

Ukrainian nationalism, rooted in early 20th-century émigré thought and funding, sought to forge a unified national identity by creating a state where that monoethnic identity could exist. In Western Ukraine, the vision of a nation-state typically had excluded Russian-speaking, Orthodox populations of central and eastern Ukraine. Nationalist efforts prioritized a narrow definition—Greek Catholic, Ukrainian-speaking, western-rooted—while marginalizing others. Internal divisions, betrayals, and competing visions of identity have plagued Ukraine’s history, revealing a deep struggle to reconcile regional diversity with an imposed, singular idea of what it means to be truly Ukrainian.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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Ukrainian Identity: Poland vs. Russia

Ukrainian identity has long been shaped by its complex relationship with both Russia and Poland. Historically, many Ukrainians identified as "maloros" or "Southern Russians," especially in central and eastern regions, where the Russian language and culture predominated. Western Ukrainian nationalism, influenced by Austro-Hungarian and Polish legacies, promoted a narrow identity centered on language, religion, and region. Post-Maidan governments increasingly advanced this Galician-centric nationalism, marginalizing other identities and minorities. The 2014 Maidan movement, seen by some as a nationalist coup, disrupted legal transitions of power and deepened societal divisions. These tensions reflect Ukraine’s unresolved struggle to define an inclusive national identity.

Post-Maidan Ukrainian Politics

The evolution of Ukrainian politics post-2014 reveals deep internal divisions shaped by historical, linguistic, and cultural differences. While President Poroshenko was democratically elected and initially recognized by Russia, his administration escalated tensions by redefining local unrest in Donbas as a war with Russia, abandoning early peace frameworks like the Minsk Accords. This shift coincided with the growing power of far-right nationalist movements, primarily rooted in Western Ukraine, which gained influence through foreign funding and the Maidan coup. These Western-funded groups promoted a narrow Galician identity and marginalized other Ukrainian identities, especially the predominantly Russian-speaking populations of eastern and southern Ukraine. Under President Zelensky, initially elected on a peace platform, media freedom and cultural pluralism have been severely restricted, further entrenching a hardline nationalist agenda. Independent voices and opposition media have been suppressed, while dissenting narratives are labeled pro-Russian. As the war continues, Zelensky’s legitimacy relies increasingly on nationalist factions who reject compromise. The result is a political environment hostile to the millions of Ukrainians identifying with the Malaros or Eastern Ukrainian identity. Without political pluralism or avenues for peaceful negotiation, Ukraine’s internal divisions risk becoming permanently entrenched, threatening the long-term stability and inclusiveness of the Ukrainian state.

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A Path Toward Conflict Resolution

War sustains itself on hatred, but peace inevitably dissolves it, reopening human connections and long-held ties, particularly in Ukraine, where many have relatives in Russia. Over time, hostility fades, as seen in past conflicts like those between the U.S. and Mexico or post-WWII Europe. For Ukraine to prosper, reconciliation with Russia will likely be necessary. The current conflict stems not solely from Ukraine’s choices but also from NATO and EU policies that excluded Russia. A lasting peace may depend on Ukraine adopting a neutral stance, engaging both Europe and Russia independently, rather than aligning as an adversary. True sovereignty lies in balanced diplomacy.

Peace negotiations often appear stalled due to public posturing, but real progress happens quietly through back channels. Diplomatic theater—like symbolic disputes—masks ongoing bargaining. War and diplomacy coexist until both sides reach exhaustion or shifting interests favor peace. Ultimately, peace emerges when those profiting from war see more gain in its end.

📚 Order your copy of Professor Nicolai Petro's The Tragedy of Ukraine: https://www.amazon.com/Tragedy-Ukraine-Classical-Resolution-Contemporary-ebook/dp/B0BKXXSZG5?ref_=ast_author_mpb

Learn more about Dr. Nicolai Petro’s research here: https://www.npetro.net

U.S. Banking Sector: $500 Billion in Unrealized Losses Represents a Considerable Risk

At the recent Austrian Economic Research Conference hosted by the Mises Institute, Dr. Steve Hanke emphasized the critical role of commercial banks in money creation and the broader economy. While public attention often focuses on the Federal Reserve, the reality is that around 80% of the money supply—measured by M2—is generated by commercial banks through lending. However, delinquencies on loans, including mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, are rising, prompting banks to increase provisions for loan losses. Though concerning, Professor Hanke believes the banking system remains generally safe for now.

The stagnant money supply—flat since mid-2022 and growing only about 4% annually—signals economic slowdown and declining inflation, now at 2.3%. This monetary stagnation and increased bank provisioning indicate a likely recession. Another key concern is “regime uncertainty,” a term that describes rapid, unpredictable policy changes, including tariffs, fiscal plans, and regulations. This uncertainty discourages investment and has led many companies to stop issuing earnings guidance. Corporate profits may remain flat or even decline in 2025.

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Impact of New Banking Regulations: Basel III and the Supplementary Leverage Ratio

There is a growing risk within the U.S. banking system, particularly the $500 billion in unrealized losses on investment securities held by banks. While these losses remain off the income statement for now, if it's deemed unlikely that they’ll be recovered within a reasonable timeframe, banks may be forced to recognize them, posing a potential threat to financial stability. This scenario mirrors the problems faced by Silicon Valley Bank, though a full-scale banking crisis remains unlikely. Instead, the broader concern is that such balance sheet strain makes banks more conservative, dampening their willingness to lend. Combined with tepid loan demand, this results in sluggish credit growth.

Regulatory changes are another key issue. Basel III regulations, scheduled to take effect in July 2025, and the supplementary leverage ratio could further tighten credit conditions. However, there’s uncertainty over whether the U.S. will fully adopt these measures. The Trump administration has hinted at repealing the supplementary leverage ratio, which could ease lending constraints—a move supported by banks and some economists.

Dr. Hanke commented on the post-2008 regulatory approach, arguing that heavy capital requirements have made banks risk-averse, stifling economic expansion. A more balanced framework, detailed in the book Dr. Hanke co-authored with Matt Sekerke, Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System, advocates for smarter, not stricter, bank regulation. The book urges a renewed focus on the central role of commercial banks in money creation and economic health, asserting that more pragmatic oversight would enhance both financial stability and economic performance. Stay tuned for a detailed review of the book with Dr. Hanke on World Affairs in Context!

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Money Supply

The money supply is currently weak, which is contributing to falling inflation. Since inflation responds to changes in the money supply with a lag, bond yields—predominantly the 10-year—would also typically decline. However, yields are rising due to regime uncertainty and fiscal concerns. Many investors mistakenly expect higher inflation due to tariffs, but tariffs only shift relative prices, not the overall price level. This has led to market confusion and mispricing. Ultimately, Dr. Steve Hanke believes that inflation will eventually bring 10-year bond yields down, correcting the current market mispricing as inflation continues to decline.

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Trade Deficit: Foreigners Are Not “Ripping Americans Off!”

Contrary to popular belief and political rhetoric, particularly from former President Trump, the U.S. trade deficit is not caused by foreigners "ripping off" America. Instead, it results from Americans spending more than the nation produces (its Gross National Product). To balance this excess spending, the U.S. runs a trade deficit—an accounting necessity, not a sign of economic failure. The deficit is financed by capital inflows, as foreigners purchase American assets, such as bonds and equities. This inflow of capital makes the trade deficit sustainable and even beneficial in some ways.

The trade deficit is thus not a policy failure or threat, but a reflection of broader macroeconomic choices. Efforts to "fix" it through tariffs are misguided. Tariffs do not reduce the overall trade deficit; they only shift where imports come from, distorting trade patterns rather than correcting any imbalance. For instance, heavy tariffs on Chinese goods would reduce imports from China but increase them from other countries. Ultimately, the misunderstanding of basic accounting identities leads to unnecessary concern and harmful trade policies. The focus should be on smarter economic policy, not blaming foreign nations or relying on counterproductive tariffs.

Follow Dr. Steve Hanke on X (former Twitter): https://x.com/steve_hanke.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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Greetings, All!

It’s been a long and very eventful week. Let’s catch up on the latest top headlines, opinions, and recommendations.

Global Geopolitics and Declining US Power: How China Won the US-China Economic War with Einar Tangen

Donald Trump’s trade war, especially with China, was a failed bluff rooted in economic nationalism and zero-sum thinking. Einar Tangen points out that the unilateral tariffs aimed to intimidate, but transparency in trade data revealed the U.S. had little leverage. Contrary to his claims, tariffs hurt American consumers, fueling inflation and deepening middle-class decline. Globally, erratic policies shattered trust in the U.S. as a reliable economic partner, destabilizing markets and raising doubts about the dollar's reserve status. Meanwhile, China positioned itself as a stabilizing force, favoring diplomacy and multilateralism. The episode highlights the perils of populist bluster over pragmatic, cooperative leadership.

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$2.5 TRILLION in Deals: Big Win for U.S. Weapons Industry as Persian Gulf Buys More Arms

President Trump reshaped regional dynamics in a dramatic Middle East tour with billion-dollar deals and controversial diplomacy. Starting in Saudi Arabia, he secured a $142 billion arms agreement and encouraged massive Saudi investments in the U.S. In Qatar, Trump oversaw a record $96 billion Boeing deal and major defense contracts. AI took center stage in the UAE with a landmark deal for Nvidia chips. Most shocking was Trump’s handshake with ex-terror ISIS/ al-Qaeda leader Mohammad al-Jolani, signaling the end of U.S. sanctions on Syria. While geopolitical tensions simmer, the military-industrial complex and tech giants emerged as clear winners in this high-stakes journey.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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• The U.S. housing crisis is worsening:

  The U.S. housing market has officially reached the most unaffordable level in history.

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Greetings, All!

Let’s catch up on the latest top headlines, opinions, and recommendations.

The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine: How Ukraine Became a U.S. Client State | Dr. Ivan Katchanovski

In our conversation, Professor Ivan Katchanovski reveals the truth about the violent Maidan regime change in Ukraine, which enabled the West to use Ukraine as a proxy tool against Russia. Professor Katchanovski notes that after the brutally orchestrated overthrow of the democratically elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, the West transformed Ukraine into a client state, whose political leaders were selected by the United States and other Western officials to further their geopolitical agenda in Eastern Europe.

WORLD WAR II VICTORY: Inside the Soviet Triumph & Demise of Hitler's Empire | Dr. Vladimir Brovkin

May 9, 2025 marked the 80th Anniversary of the Allies’ Victory over Nazi Germany. I spoke with Dr. Brovkin about the key turning points in the history of World War II, the Eastern Front vs. the Western Front, and the Soviet offensive that broke the Wehrmacht. The conversation was truly fascinating (I love history!) and is a must-watch!

US Dollar DROPS 9% as Trump Pushes for INFLATION and Fed Alerts STAGFLATION Is Here | Ryan McMaken

The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, and the Federal Reserve just warned of growing stagflation risks. In the meantime, President Donald Trump is pushing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

The push for low interest rates and monetary inflation benefits Wall Street at the expense of Main Street. These policies disproportionately serve the wealthy by inflating asset prices, boosting disposable income for top earners, and rewarding those with significant debt and investments. Meanwhile, lower-income Americans, who own fewer assets and benefit less from such policies, face rising costs and minimal income gains.

Ryan McMaken notes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's latest warning is a major red flag, as the Federal Reserve habitually downplays economic risks and misrepresents warning signs.

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$2.5 Trillion Dollar Avalanche: Asia Prepares to Dump U.S. Currency as Global Trade Fragments

A massive shift in global finance may be underway as Asian nations, holding over $2.5 trillion in U.S. dollar reserves, consider moving out of the currency. Economist Stephen Jen warns that these unhedged dollar investments are increasingly vulnerable amid political tensions, particularly U.S. policies targeting China. With the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and the dollar weakening, countries like China could repatriate large sums, triggering a broader selloff. This could lead to rising U.S. inflation, falling bond prices, and shifts toward emerging market currencies or digital assets. Meanwhile, BRICS+ nations, especially China and Russia, are accelerating de-dollarization in trade settlements. I further discussed the underlying causes in this new video.

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Let’s move on to the week’s top geopolitics, economics, and finance headlines.

• Markets Pause After Rally: The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq ended the week down 0.3–0.5%, snapping a nine-day winning streak. Investors remain cautious amid ongoing U.S.-China trade talks and President Trump’s renewed tariff proposals.

• Tariff Concerns Impact Earnings: Berkshire Hathaway reported a 14.1% decline in Q1 operating earnings. CEO Warren Buffett announced plans to retire by year-end and criticized proposed tariffs.

Remember to tune in to World Affairs in Context for more news, analysis, and upcoming interviews available on YouTube, Rumble, Patreon, Locals, and Spotify.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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• Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady: The Fed maintained interest rates, while Treasury yields remained flat. During my discussion with Ryan McMaken, economist and editor at the Mises Institute, Ryan noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's latest warning is a major red flag, as the Federal Reserve habitually downplays economic risks and misrepresents warning signs.

• The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet runoff slows: The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet declined by $17 billion to $6.7 trillion since March 2025, the lowest since April 2020. In March, the Fed announced it would slow the average pace of Quantitative Tightening from $60 billion monthly to $40 billion. (If you’d like a refresher on how this works, Ryan McMaken did a great job explaining the basics here.)

  

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The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, and the Federal Reserve just issued a warning of growing stagflation risks. In the meantime, President Donald Trump is pushing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

The push for low interest rates and monetary inflation benefits Wall Street at the expense of Main Street. These policies disproportionately serve the wealthy by inflating asset prices, boosting disposable income for top earners, and rewarding those with significant debt and investments. Meanwhile, lower-income Americans, who own fewer assets and benefit less from such policies, face rising costs and minimal income gains.

Ryan McMaken notes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's latest warning is a major red flag, as the Federal Reserve habitually downplays economic risks and misrepresents warning signs.

Ryan McMaken is an economist (Austrian economics), executive editor at the Mises Institute, writer, and the author of “Breaking Away: The Case of Secession, Radical Decentralization, and Smaller Polities" and “Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre”.

Follow Ryan McMaken on X (Twitter): https://x.com/ryanmcmaken.

Read more of his work here: https://mises.org/profile/ryan-mcmaken.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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The interview is available on YouTube and Patreon.

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The recent joint statement issued by China, Japan, So…

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Dr. Brovkin served as a professor of History at Harvard University and a consultant to various US agencies. His recent book, “From Vladimir Lenin to Vladimir Putin: Russia in Search of Its Identity,” examines how the Russian past influenced and shaped current politics, particularly the East–West divide.

As the 80th Anniversary of the Allies’ Victory over Nazi Germany is approaching, I spoke with Dr. Brovkin about the key turning points in the history of World War II, the Eastern Front vs. the Western Front and the Soviet offensive that broke the Wehrmacht.

Follow Dr. Vladimir Brovkin's fantastic YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@vladimirbrovkin4052.

Check out his latest book, “From Vladimir Lenin to Vladimir Putin: Russia in Search of Its Identity.”

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Subscribe now

The interview is available on YouTube and Patreon.

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In our conversation, Professor Ivan Katchanovski reveals the truth about the violent Maidan regime change in Ukraine, which enabled the West to use Ukraine as a proxy tool against Russia. Professor Katchanovski notes that after the brutally orchestrated overthrow of the democratically elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, the West transformed Ukraine into a client state, whose political leaders were selected by the United States and other Western officials to further their geopolitical agenda in Eastern Europe.

Following the Maidan coup, the politics of Ukraine have been dictated by foreign actors at the expense of the national interests of the Ukrainian population. The loss of sovereignty foreshadowed the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and regional peace and stability.

Professor Ivan Katchanovski is a Ukrainian and Canadian scholar specializing in Ukraine's politics and conflicts. Professor Katchanovski spent 11 years researching one of the most pivotal events in the modern history of Ukraine, the Maidan massacre. His latest book, “The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine: The Mass Killing that Changed the World," illustrates the origins of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the decisive role played in it by foreign actors. It’s available to be downloaded for FREE, and it's absolutely a must-read!

Follow Dr. Ivan Katchanovski on X (Twitter): https://x.com/I_Katchanovski.

Download Professor Katchanovski's "The Maidan Massacre" book in open access for FREE: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-67121-0

Support Professor Katchanovski's research via GoFundMe campaigns:

https://gofund.me/173df0ed

https://gofund.me/334b0e98

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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The interview is available on YouTube and Patreon.

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Let’s catch up on the latest top headl…

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The BRICS+ alliance, under the chairmanship of Brazil, held a conference, "The Dilemmas of Humanity," in São Paulo, where the bloc’s members and partners discussed approaches to countering the tariff regime imposed by the Trump administration, a new financial architecture, and enhancing platforms to promote South-South cooperation.

Yaroslav Lissovolik attended the conference and shared recent updates with us. In our conversation, Yaroslav emphasized that President Trump’s tariffs are encouraging countries of the Global South to increase cooperation and establish joint commodity platforms, such as the BRICS+ Grains Exchange. With more than 30 countries expressing interest in joining the bloc, its expansion is an indicator of the global shift in power fueled by the economic and trade policies of the West.

To address the flaws in global economic governance, the BRICS+ advocates for establishing a regional governance layer between national economies and global institutions like the IMF and World Bank. This intermediate layer would include regional trade, financing, and development institutions, which already possess more combined resources than their global counterparts. While some progress has been made, a comprehensive system is still lacking. The Global South, with existing regional groups and financial institutions, is well-positioned to lead this initiative through integration and coordination.

Dr. Yaroslav Lisovolik is the founder of BRICS+ analytics, a valuable source of unbiased and professionally presented, highly detailed information on the BRICS+ economic alliance and its latest developments.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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Let’s catch up on the latest top headl…

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Let’s examine a critical topic that affects all of us…

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Today, I was honored to connect with Dr. Ron Paul whose dedication to supporting a peaceful foreign policy and the protection of civil liberties at home has been unparalleled. Dr. Paul is a former Congressman, United States Presidential candidate, and the founder of The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. Dr. Paul is the host of The Ron Paul Liberty Report, a must-watch show on Rumble!

Dr. Paul notes that the United States has been on an unsustainable fiscal path, and we are witnessing the collapse of the fake economic system. President Trump seeks to increase the Pentagon budget to $1 trillion as the federal deficit rises and the national debt surpasses $37 trillion. Interest on the debt is already larger than spending on Medicare and national defense combined – it is second only to Social Security. Ending the glorification of militarism and interventionism over peace, sound money policies, and the nation’s prosperity is the first step toward addressing economic and political challenges.

Follow Dr. Ron Paul on X, watch The Ron Paul Liberty Report for daily updates, news, and analysis, and connect with the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity.

The video is available on YouTube and Patreon.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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Although President Donald Trump campaigned on ending the Ukraine-Russia conflict “in 24 hours”, the complexity of the US proxy war has proven to be far more nuanced. Since January 2025, the neocons in Washington spent $1 billion to bomb Yemen as the Trump Administration approved nearly $12 billion in major FMS sales to Israel. As the US buildup of military assets around Iran intensifies, will it seek to exit its failed proxy war in Ukraine to attack Iran?

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Dr. Pascal Lottaz notes that although the US-Russia peace talks are progressing much slower than originally expected, the peace in Ukraine is viewed by both sides as only a part of the bigger goal to re-establish an effective security architecture in Europe. The calls for a ceasefire are meant to freeze the conflict as Russia is decisively winning on the battlefield. The tensions within the Trump administration and the neocons who push to continue the fighting (such as Gen. Chris Cavoli) indicate internal policy misalignment as the military-industrial complex refuses to abandon a failed proxy war before it sets the stage for a pivot to another lucrative multi-billion-dollar conflict.

Dr. Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor for Neutrality Studies at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi Center. Follow Pascal on X and watch one of his recent interviews and analysis videos on Neutrality Studies.

The video is available on YouTube and Patreon.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

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The US State Department’s approval of a $5.58 billion military sale to the Philippines, featuring 20 cutting-edge F-16 fighter jets and a wide array of advanced weaponry and support systems, came amid reports of the deployment of yet another Typhon missile system to the country. After the recent social unrest caused by the ICC arrest of the former President Rodrigo Duterte, the Marcos Jr. administration welcomed US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, whose main goal was to strengthen the military alliance between the two countries.

Anna Malindog-Uy notes that the new arms race in the region will drive China to an increasingly defensive posture and will further destabilize the Indo-Pacific region. The tensions in the South China Sea and those surrounding Taiwan are escalating as the multi-billion-dollar sales of weapons to the Philippines indicate it is being groomed as a new U.S. proxy in Asia.

Dr. Anna Malindog-Uy is the Vice President at the Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute. Follow Anna on X and read her latest articles on her site.

Thank you to all my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions inspire it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute to the resources needed to produce more content on the platform. If you’d like to make a one-time contribution, please do so via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Subscribe now