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Welcome back to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu! In today’s episode, Tom sits down with journalist and foreign policy analyst Eli Lake for a deep-dive into some of the world’s most urgent geopolitical issues—and the surprising forces at play behind the headlines.
Together, Tom and Eli tackle persistent conspiracy theories around US-Israel relations, unravel the realities behind intelligence sharing, and dissect the complex dynamics of the recent Iran-Israel conflict. Eli brings historical context to anti-Semitic tropes, clarifies the roles different nations and intelligence agencies play, and explains why Iran’s nuclear ambitions matter to the global power balance.
As the conversation unfolds, they explore the upending of proxy networks in the Middle East, the ripple effects of military actions on democratic movements inside Iran, and what constitutes real success in modern warfare. Tom also pushes Eli to weigh in on divisions in American public opinion, the controversial legacies of recent US military interventions, and the evolving landscape of US foreign policy under President Trump.
You’ll get insight into behind-the-scenes strategy in the Gulf, how economic ambitions reshape regional alliances, and why hope for organic democratic change in Iran remains very much alive. If you’re fascinated by the intersection of history, politics, strategy, and the quest for global stability, you won’t want to miss this thought-provoking episode!
Israel-Iran conflict, Trump administration, Netanyahu, anti-Semitic tropes, US-Israel relations, conspiracy theories, intelligence sharing, Mossad, Iranian nuclear program, October 7th Hamas attack, proxy strategies, Hezbollah, Houthis, regime change, democratic uprisings, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, air defense systems, nuclear enrichment, weapons of mass destruction, Abraham Accords, Middle East alliances, Saudi Arabia, UAE investments, public opinion, regime survival, American intervention, political Islam, Hamas, Gaza conflict, Gulf region modernization
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In today’s episode, Tom pulls back the curtain on the hard truths that shape our world, diving into the bloody history and cold calculations that drive geopolitics. Using the concept of “realpolitik” as his lens, Tom explores why nations act not according to ideals, but ruthless self-interest, and how this approach accurately predicts the cycles of conflict, power struggles, and shifting borders that have marked human history.
From Genghis Khan to today’s nuclear standoffs, Tom examines why humanity’s dual capacity for both devastating violence and breathtaking kindness continues to shape the fate of nations. You’ll learn the nine core tenets of realpolitik, see how power and survival instincts play out on the global stage, and discover why understanding the unvarnished reality of how nations operate is essential—not just for world leaders, but for anyone who wants to protect and thrive in today’s chaotic world.
But this isn’t just a journey through the darkness of history and politics. Tom also shows how culture, empathy, and pragmatism temper our most savage impulses, offering hope even amidst turmoil. By the end, you’ll have a clear-eyed framework for understanding global events, decoding market movements, and safeguarding your freedom in uncertain times.
Get ready to challenge your assumptions and build a worldview that actually works. This episode will change the way you see the world—and your role in it.
00:00 Intro
05:09 Understanding Realpolitik: Power Over Ideals
08:20 Realism: Survival in Global Anarchy
12:10 Realpolitik and Brutal History
15:54 Realpolitik and Historical Ruthlessness
18:45 "Truth Over Idealism"
22:57 "Group Bias from Random Assignment"
25:16 Dual Nature of Humanity
29:57 "Human Nature and Realpolitik"
30:44 "Burnham's Elite-Mass Division Insight"
34:35 NATO Expansion Provokes Russian Response
38:58 US-Iran Relations: Realist Perspective
40:02 U.S.-Iran Conflict: Power Over Ideology
45:47 Power, Freedom, and Realpolitik
46:46 "Predicting Politics Beyond Morality"
realpolitik, international relations, power politics, national interest, sovereignty, military strength, economic warfare, cyber warfare, cultural warfare, world history, war and conflict, John Mearsheimer, Machiavellianism, balance of power, human nature, alliances, anarchy, global instability, NATO, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israel-Hamas conflict, US-Iran relations, nuclear deterrence, OPEC oil crisis, evolution, cooperation and conquest, in-group/out-group dynamics, culture and morality, leadership elites, slavery, historical patterns
Think you can’t invest because you’re “too broke”?
Tom Bilyeu crushes that myth by breaking down exactly how just $10—yep, a single Hamilton—can kick-start a life-changing investing habit.
He reveals the compounding strategy that turned a janitor into a millionaire, why the S&P 500 beats 99% of pros over 30-year stretches, and the mindset shifts that let you out-earn inflation and corporate monopolies.
What You’ll Learn:
0:00 Why “I can’t buy assets” is the WRONG question
0:41 The $2 M janitor story & the power of compounding
1:10 How $10 in an S&P 500 index fund stacks over decades
1:48 The simple skill-building loop that funds your first deposits
2:24 Beating lifestyle creep: spend less than you make
3:06 “Mental horsepower” vs. simple, repeatable moves
4:08 Tom’s take on regulations, corporate landlords & fair play
7:24 Delay-gratification muscle: why the marshmallow kids win
8:06 Tom’s 3 traits of hyper-successful people
Disclaimer:
I’m not your financial advisor. This video is for educational & entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before investing.
If you got value from this, hit Like, smash Subscribe, and share this with a friend who still thinks $10 can’t change their life.
You’ve heard the headlines: “Middle‑Class Meltdown,” “Tax the Rich,” and “Raise the Minimum Wage.”
Tom Bilyeu says most of it is smoke‑and‑mirrors, and he’s got the receipts.
In this no‑BS breakdown, Tom lays out why the Federal Reserve’s endless money‑printing is the silent pick‑pocket of the middle class, how punitive taxes chase wealth (and jobs) offshore, and the single leverage point that actually boosts wages—rare skills.
What you’ll learn:
1. The six‑phase debt cycle that quietly erases middle‑class wealth and why killing inflation is step #1.
2. Why “tax the rich” slogans feel good but blow up government revenue when capital flees.
3. Wage math 101: the brutal link between the problems you solve and the paycheck you command.
4. How minimum‑wage hikes backfire by fast‑tracking automation (hello, AI cashiers).
5. The simple, hard path to a real raise: become so good they fear losing you.
Timestamps
0:00 Abolish the Fed or lose the middle class
1:36 Why the rich keep getting richer
3:47 The tax‑the‑rich boomerang effect
6:35 How wages are actually set
9:45 Minimum wage vs. automation smackdown
12:50 The only belief that matters for your wallet
If you’re tired of reheated talking points and want a roadmap that actually works, hit play.
Then smash 👍, sub for more reality checks, and share this with someone still blaming Wall Street protesters instead of the printing press.
Why are finished games still being switched off, and what can we actually do about it?
In today’s clip from the Tom Bilyeu Show, we'll break down the Stop Killing Games movement, the flare‑ups between influencers like Ross Scott, MoistCr1TiKaL, Asmongold and Pirate Software, and the hidden economic forces that keep publishers reaching for the “OFF” switch.
Tom maps the cause‑and‑effect chain nobody else is talking about... from server‑cost realities to the perverse incentives baked into live‑service models.
What you’ll learn:
0:00 The roots of Stop Killing Games
2:11 Pirate Software's Take
6:40 Single‑player vs. MMO problem
9:14 Tom’s strategy to protect gamers
11:41 How open markets can reward devs
13:26 Tom’s game and standards for ownership
Key takeaways:
1. Narrow the fight to always‑online single‑player titles first—easy legal win.
2. Align developer incentives with lifetime player value, not day‑one sales.
3. Let indies fill the gap with feature‑complete, “buy once, play forever” experiences.
Join the conversation:
1. Do you back Tom’s plan, or is legislation the only answer? Drop your thoughts below.
2. Smash Subscribe for more breakdowns of cause and effect in culture.
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Welcome to the Tom Bilyeu Show Live prep. Reminder Superchats will be read at the bottom of the second hour, unless over a threshold of 19.99.
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Welcome back to the Tom Bilyeu Show! I’m Tom, and this week’s episode is a whirlwind tour through one of the wildest stretches of news and culture we’ve seen in a long time. Alongside my producer Drew, we dig deep into the global headlines making waves—from the bizarre and chaotic end to the 12-day war between Israel and Iran and Trump’s headline-grabbing ceasefire announcement, to China’s explosive rise in cultural exports and gaming.
We don’t just skim the surface—we’re getting into the realpolitik that drives international decision-making (and why most people get it wrong), what Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize nomination really says, and how Supreme Court decisions around deportation could reshape the landscape at home. There’s a lot happening domestically, too: we’re breaking down the surge in socialist-leaning policies in New York’s mayoral race, questioning if “free” is ever truly free, and tracing the roots of America’s current populist moment.
On the tech and relationship front, Drew and I react to the latest wave of AI-generated memories with deceased loved ones, what that might do to our sense of reality, and even a hot take on how to make straight relationships work in the modern era. Plus, with China dominating in gaming, we reflect on what it’ll take for America to recapture its creative edge.
This episode is jam-packed with hot takes, practical wisdom, and just enough laughter to keep things moving—so if you’re ready for some unfiltered analysis and real talk about the week’s craziest stories, you’re in the right place. Let’s dive in!
00:00 Intro
07:58 Middle East Tactical Diplomacy
13:18 Casual Presidency Shift
18:15 Political Loyalty and Experimental Strategy
25:46 Corn Subsidies and Market Distortion
30:55 "Challenges of Entrepreneurship"
32:22 Price Controls Inefficiency Impact
40:29 Rent Freeze Leads to Decline
46:53 "Misconceptions About Government Spending"
50:55 Deportation Tactics Under Scrutiny
56:11 "Mirrored Therapy for Phantom Pain"
01:01:21 Marriage Dynamics and Respect
01:05:36 Rethinking Relationship Dynamics
01:11:54 Game Development Milestone Reflections
Israel-Iran War, Trump Nobel Peace Prize, Supreme Court deportation ruling, Realpolitik, US-Iran relations, nuclear weapons, Abraham Accords, populism, social media influence, China cultural warfare, socialism in New York, NYC mayoral race, city-owned grocery stores, free public transportation, rent control, income inequality, government subsidies, union influence, economic innovation, property values, AI-generated memories, false memories technology, international politics, US-Mexico border, deportation policy, generational cycles, cultural identity, video game industry, Chinese gaming exports, US economic policy
Welcome to the Tom Bilyeu Show Live prep. Reminder Superchats will be read at the bottom of the second hour, unless over a threshold of 19.99.
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When you look at Steve Jobs or Elon Musk, and criticize them for the fact they don't directly code their software or build their rockets... you're missing the point.
Today on Impact Theory, @rickcarusola and I break down what sets great leaders apart from the rest.
The secret? Great Leaders are good at their craft, they're good businessmen, AND they have a VISION for the company that carries their team.
Rick breaks down a beautiful example in Walt Disney in this clip, and you can watch the full interview right now.
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On this episode of Impact Theory, Tom Bilyeu sits down with real estate developer and civic leader Rick Caruso for a powerful conversation about leadership, crisis management, and the future of Los Angeles. As political divisiveness and public safety concerns grip the city, Rick brings his firsthand experience tackling LA’s toughest challenges—from the riots and police reform to wildfire recovery and urban renewal. Rick shares candid insights on what it takes to drive culture change, hold government accountable, and inspire real action in both the public and private sectors. With stories from rebuilding after devastating fires to navigating City Hall bureaucracy, you’ll hear why Rick believes leadership, vision, and a commitment to competence are the keys to restoring pride and safety in our communities. Whether you’re passionate about civic change or looking for inspiration on effective leadership, this episode delivers a masterclass in getting things done—even when the odds are stacked against you.
00:00 Intro
05:24 Pathway to Citizenship Advocacy
08:01 Trump's Methods Critiqued
10:42 "Critique of Radical City Policies"
14:34 Effective Leadership: Inspire and Collaborate
19:33 "Leadership Critique of LA Mayors"
21:23 "Prioritizing Competence Over Ideology"
26:04 Fire Response Strategy Development
27:53 Preparedness Prevents Disaster in LA
31:26 Steadfast's Progress Amid Challenges
34:05 Elon Musk Podcast Speculation
37:05 Leadership Paralysis and Decision-Making
41:16 LA County Crime Policy Dynamics
44:17 "Action Over Words: Progress Focus"
48:11 "National Economic Divide"
49:45 "Subscribe and Be Legendary"
LA riots, political divisiveness, culture change, Los Angeles corruption, LAPD, defunding police, fire department budget cuts, law enforcement, property destruction, stand down orders, protest vs. riot, illegal immigration, citizenship pathway, economic workers, family separation, gang violence, paid agitators, political organizations, city council disruptions, leadership, culture shift, USC crisis, entrepreneurship, visionary leadership, homelessness, housing reconstruction, wildfire preparedness, artificial intelligence in plan check, recall election, public safety.
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00:00 Intro
00:25 The Day Argentina Died: A Glimpse Into America’s Future
01:21 America’s Fate? Debt, Division, Disaster
03:05 Why the U.S. Is In Late-Stage Collapse (Phase 5)
05:06 Phase 1: The Fake Boom – Early Expansion
05:54 Phase 2: Bubble Building – When Growth Gets Dangerous
08:14 Phase 3: Euphoria – The Debt Trap Nobody Sees
11:04 Phase 4: Crisis – When It All Starts to Burn
15:41 Phase 5: Internal Disorder – Trust Dies, Riots Rise
17:17 Phase 6: Total Collapse – Pick Your Poison
18:59 How Debt Fuels Political Extremism
20:26 The Shocking Truth About How Money Is Created
23:09 Why The Rich Get Richer—and The System Breaks
26:02 “Tax the Rich” Won’t Save Us
35:40 We’re Arguing About the Wrong Things
38:01 How Collapse Follows a Pattern (And We’re in It)
41:27 What Comes Next? Beautiful Deleveraging or Ruin
45:12 How to Escape Collapse: The 4 Tools of Deleveraging
56:16 The Playbook: How To Engineer a Safe Economic Landing
59:04 The Final Step: Rebuilding Confidence and Growth.
1:00:13 The Bottom Line: 98% Collapse, But 2% Rebuild
Catch Our Full Slate Of Content:
Monday - Tom's Deepdives
Tuesday - Interviews
Wednesday - Tom Bliyeu Show Live!
Thursday = Tight 60 (Our weekly review show)
Friday - Tom Bilyeu Show Lives!
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